Incumbent Rep. Juan Vargas (D) commands trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability to retain California's 52nd Congressional District, a D+13 seat per Cook Partisan Voter Index where Democrats won 57.5% in the 2024 presidential vote. Vargas's wide 2024 victory (66%-34%) and $424,000 in fundraising as of late March dwarf underfunded challengers Deborah Calhoun Rhodes (D) and Jeff Belle (R) ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Solid Democratic ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato reflect the district's reliable blue lean post-Prop. 50 redistricting, with no recent polling or developments signaling upset risk. A GOP breakthrough would require a primary surprise, Vargas scandal, or national Republican wave shifting turnout in this border-region battleground.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाCA -52 हाउस इलेक्शन विनर
CA -52 हाउस इलेक्शन विनर
$39,005 वॉल्यूम
$39,005 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
95%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
6%
$39,005 वॉल्यूम
$39,005 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
$28,678 वॉल्यूम
95%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
$10,327 वॉल्यूम
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-52 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Juan Vargas (D) commands trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability to retain California's 52nd Congressional District, a D+13 seat per Cook Partisan Voter Index where Democrats won 57.5% in the 2024 presidential vote. Vargas's wide 2024 victory (66%-34%) and $424,000 in fundraising as of late March dwarf underfunded challengers Deborah Calhoun Rhodes (D) and Jeff Belle (R) ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Solid Democratic ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato reflect the district's reliable blue lean post-Prop. 50 redistricting, with no recent polling or developments signaling upset risk. A GOP breakthrough would require a primary surprise, Vargas scandal, or national Republican wave shifting turnout in this border-region battleground.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-52 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$39,005समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-52 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Juan Vargas (D) commands trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability to retain California's 52nd Congressional District, a D+13 seat per Cook Partisan Voter Index where Democrats won 57.5% in the 2024 presidential vote. Vargas's wide 2024 victory (66%-34%) and $424,000 in fundraising as of late March dwarf underfunded challengers Deborah Calhoun Rhodes (D) and Jeff Belle (R) ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Solid Democratic ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato reflect the district's reliable blue lean post-Prop. 50 redistricting, with no recent polling or developments signaling upset risk. A GOP breakthrough would require a primary surprise, Vargas scandal, or national Republican wave shifting turnout in this border-region battleground.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-52 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$39,005समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Juan Vargas (D) commands trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability to retain California's 52nd Congressional District, a D+13 seat per Cook Partisan Voter Index where Democrats won 57.5% in the 2024 presidential vote. Vargas's wide 2024 victory (66%-34%) and $424,000 in fundraising as of late March dwarf underfunded challengers Deborah Calhoun Rhodes (D) and Jeff Belle (R) ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Solid Democratic ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato reflect the district's reliable blue lean post-Prop. 50 redistricting, with no recent polling or developments signaling upset risk. A GOP breakthrough would require a primary surprise, Vargas scandal, or national Republican wave shifting turnout in this border-region battleground.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न