Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a 99.8% implied probability for China's Q1 2026 year-over-year GDP growth falling in the 5.0-5.5% band, directly reflecting the National Bureau of Statistics' official preliminary release today showing exactly 5.0% expansion—beating economist consensus of around 4.8% and accelerating from Q4 2025's three-year low of 4.5%. This rebound stems from robust export growth amid resilient global demand, bolstered by government stimulus on infrastructure and consumer spending, alongside stabilizing industrial output. With the market nearing resolution on this authoritative figure, challenges would require an unprecedented downward revision in subsequent data releases, though such adjustments are rare and typically minor for headline GDP.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाQ1 2026 में चीन की जीडीपी वृद्धि (Y/Y)?
Q1 2026 में चीन की जीडीपी वृद्धि (Y/Y)?
5.0-5.5% 99.8%
4.5-5.0% 1.8%
<3.5% <1%
3.5-4.0% <1%
$518,950 वॉल्यूम
$518,950 वॉल्यूम
17 अप्रैल, 2026
<3.5%
<1%
3.5-4.0%
<1%
4.0-4.5%
<1%
4.5-5.0%
2%
5.0-5.5%
100%
5.5-6.0%
<1%
6.0%+
<1%
5.0-5.5% 99.8%
4.5-5.0% 1.8%
<3.5% <1%
3.5-4.0% <1%
$518,950 वॉल्यूम
$518,950 वॉल्यूम
17 अप्रैल, 2026
<3.5%
$41,663 वॉल्यूम
<1%
3.5-4.0%
$81,173 वॉल्यूम
<1%
4.0-4.5%
$85,097 वॉल्यूम
<1%
4.5-5.0%
$76,111 वॉल्यूम
2%
5.0-5.5%
$85,964 वॉल्यूम
100%
5.5-6.0%
$110,647 वॉल्यूम
<1%
6.0%+
$39,096 वॉल्यूम
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a 99.8% implied probability for China's Q1 2026 year-over-year GDP growth falling in the 5.0-5.5% band, directly reflecting the National Bureau of Statistics' official preliminary release today showing exactly 5.0% expansion—beating economist consensus of around 4.8% and accelerating from Q4 2025's three-year low of 4.5%. This rebound stems from robust export growth amid resilient global demand, bolstered by government stimulus on infrastructure and consumer spending, alongside stabilizing industrial output. With the market nearing resolution on this authoritative figure, challenges would require an unprecedented downward revision in subsequent data releases, though such adjustments are rare and typically minor for headline GDP.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 21, 2026, 7:11 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$518,950समाप्ति तिथि
17 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 21, 2026, 7:11 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a 99.8% implied probability for China's Q1 2026 year-over-year GDP growth falling in the 5.0-5.5% band, directly reflecting the National Bureau of Statistics' official preliminary release today showing exactly 5.0% expansion—beating economist consensus of around 4.8% and accelerating from Q4 2025's three-year low of 4.5%. This rebound stems from robust export growth amid resilient global demand, bolstered by government stimulus on infrastructure and consumer spending, alongside stabilizing industrial output. With the market nearing resolution on this authoritative figure, challenges would require an unprecedented downward revision in subsequent data releases, though such adjustments are rare and typically minor for headline GDP.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
वॉल्यूम
$518,950समाप्ति तिथि
17 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 21, 2026, 7:11 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a 99.8% implied probability for China's Q1 2026 year-over-year GDP growth falling in the 5.0-5.5% band, directly reflecting the National Bureau of Statistics' official preliminary release today showing exactly 5.0% expansion—beating economist consensus of around 4.8% and accelerating from Q4 2025's three-year low of 4.5%. This rebound stems from robust export growth amid resilient global demand, bolstered by government stimulus on infrastructure and consumer spending, alongside stabilizing industrial output. With the market nearing resolution on this authoritative figure, challenges would require an unprecedented downward revision in subsequent data releases, though such adjustments are rare and typically minor for headline GDP.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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