Resumed bilateral consultations between China and the Philippines in late March 2026—the first in over a year—signaled de-escalation efforts in the South China Sea, where both sides agreed to enhance dialogue and manage maritime tensions, driving trader consensus toward an 83.5% implied probability of no military clash before 2027. Despite persistent grey-zone confrontations, including China Coast Guard harassment of Philippine fishing vessels near Scarborough Shoal in mid-March, flare firings at a patrol plane in early April, and PLA patrols responding to joint Philippines exercises, incidents have remained below armed conflict thresholds, consistent with historical patterns of coast guard ramming and water cannon use without live fire. Ongoing ASEAN-China code of conduct negotiations targeting 2026, alongside U.S. alliance commitments and economic interdependence, reinforce restraint amid territorial disputes.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाहाँ
$243,408 वॉल्यूम
$243,408 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
$243,408 वॉल्यूम
$243,408 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Resumed bilateral consultations between China and the Philippines in late March 2026—the first in over a year—signaled de-escalation efforts in the South China Sea, where both sides agreed to enhance dialogue and manage maritime tensions, driving trader consensus toward an 83.5% implied probability of no military clash before 2027. Despite persistent grey-zone confrontations, including China Coast Guard harassment of Philippine fishing vessels near Scarborough Shoal in mid-March, flare firings at a patrol plane in early April, and PLA patrols responding to joint Philippines exercises, incidents have remained below armed conflict thresholds, consistent with historical patterns of coast guard ramming and water cannon use without live fire. Ongoing ASEAN-China code of conduct negotiations targeting 2026, alongside U.S. alliance commitments and economic interdependence, reinforce restraint amid territorial disputes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$243,408समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Resumed bilateral consultations between China and the Philippines in late March 2026—the first in over a year—signaled de-escalation efforts in the South China Sea, where both sides agreed to enhance dialogue and manage maritime tensions, driving trader consensus toward an 83.5% implied probability of no military clash before 2027. Despite persistent grey-zone confrontations, including China Coast Guard harassment of Philippine fishing vessels near Scarborough Shoal in mid-March, flare firings at a patrol plane in early April, and PLA patrols responding to joint Philippines exercises, incidents have remained below armed conflict thresholds, consistent with historical patterns of coast guard ramming and water cannon use without live fire. Ongoing ASEAN-China code of conduct negotiations targeting 2026, alongside U.S. alliance commitments and economic interdependence, reinforce restraint amid territorial disputes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$243,408समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resumed bilateral consultations between China and the Philippines in late March 2026—the first in over a year—signaled de-escalation efforts in the South China Sea, where both sides agreed to enhance dialogue and manage maritime tensions, driving trader consensus toward an 83.5% implied probability of no military clash before 2027. Despite persistent grey-zone confrontations, including China Coast Guard harassment of Philippine fishing vessels near Scarborough Shoal in mid-March, flare firings at a patrol plane in early April, and PLA patrols responding to joint Philippines exercises, incidents have remained below armed conflict thresholds, consistent with historical patterns of coast guard ramming and water cannon use without live fire. Ongoing ASEAN-China code of conduct negotiations targeting 2026, alongside U.S. alliance commitments and economic interdependence, reinforce restraint amid territorial disputes.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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