Trader sentiment on Howard Lutnick departing as Secretary of Commerce by December 31 reflects a closely contested 54.5% "Yes" probability, driven by recent reports of President Trump's frustration with his performance, including tariff policies struck down by the Supreme Court—allowing Lutnick's family firm, Cantor Fitzgerald, to profit substantially—and lingering fallout from February's Epstein files revealing his 2012 island visit, sparking bipartisan resignation calls from figures like Sen. Schiff and Rep. Massie. Balancing these pressures, the White House has rejected demands for his ouster, and Lutnick remains active, with an upcoming April 23 House budget hearing that could highlight achievements or expose further vulnerabilities, potentially tipping odds toward exit via cabinet reshuffle or retention through policy successes.