US and Israeli airstrikes since late February 2026 have inflicted substantial damage on Iran's nuclear infrastructure, including key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, as well as weaponization facilities, destroying an estimated 80% of its nuclear industrial base according to US military assessments. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi reported in March that Iran has denied access to bombed facilities, leaving the status of its 400+ kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium unclear but likely buried under rubble, significantly extending breakout timelines beyond 2027. Ongoing US-Iran ceasefire negotiations, highlighted by President Trump's April 13 insistence on a "no nukes" peace deal, reflect trader consensus on diplomatic constraints preventing weaponization, though covert reconstitution or failed talks could shift odds. IAEA urged verification checks in a potential war-ending agreement on April 15.