Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 43.5% implied probability for Japan Q1 2026 GDP growth in the -0.3% to -0.1% range, reflecting heightened downside risks from surging oil prices tied to Middle East tensions, as evidenced by the Reuters Tankan manufacturers' index plunging to 7 in April—its sharpest drop in over three years. This bearish tilt overrides analyst forecasts around 1.3–1.5% annualized (e.g., Daiwa, JCER as of early April), amid soft private consumption and export headwinds from a firm yen, despite Q4 2025 GDP revised up to 1.3% on capex strength. BOJ's January outlook remains moderately positive, but traders prioritize leading indicators like the April 14 sentiment slump. Preliminary GDP data due mid-May could catalyze shifts.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाJapan GDP growth in Q1 2026?
Japan GDP growth in Q1 2026?
-0.3– -0.1% 37%
1.2%+ 27.9%
0.0–0.2% 22%
0.9–1.1% 18.3%
नया
नया
19 मई, 2026
≤-0.4%
2%
-0.3– -0.1%
37%
0.0–0.2%
21%
0.3–0.5%
16%
0.6–0.8%
24%
0.9–1.1%
18%
1.2%+
28%
-0.3– -0.1% 37%
1.2%+ 27.9%
0.0–0.2% 22%
0.9–1.1% 18.3%
नया
नया
19 मई, 2026
≤-0.4%
$173 वॉल्यूम
2%
-0.3– -0.1%
$123 वॉल्यूम
37%
0.0–0.2%
$114 वॉल्यूम
21%
0.3–0.5%
$84 वॉल्यूम
16%
0.6–0.8%
$107 वॉल्यूम
24%
0.9–1.1%
$106 वॉल्यूम
18%
1.2%+
$593 वॉल्यूम
28%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 43.5% implied probability for Japan Q1 2026 GDP growth in the -0.3% to -0.1% range, reflecting heightened downside risks from surging oil prices tied to Middle East tensions, as evidenced by the Reuters Tankan manufacturers' index plunging to 7 in April—its sharpest drop in over three years. This bearish tilt overrides analyst forecasts around 1.3–1.5% annualized (e.g., Daiwa, JCER as of early April), amid soft private consumption and export headwinds from a firm yen, despite Q4 2025 GDP revised up to 1.3% on capex strength. BOJ's January outlook remains moderately positive, but traders prioritize leading indicators like the April 14 sentiment slump. Preliminary GDP data due mid-May could catalyze shifts.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
बाज़ार खुला: Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$1,300समाप्ति तिथि
19 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 43.5% implied probability for Japan Q1 2026 GDP growth in the -0.3% to -0.1% range, reflecting heightened downside risks from surging oil prices tied to Middle East tensions, as evidenced by the Reuters Tankan manufacturers' index plunging to 7 in April—its sharpest drop in over three years. This bearish tilt overrides analyst forecasts around 1.3–1.5% annualized (e.g., Daiwa, JCER as of early April), amid soft private consumption and export headwinds from a firm yen, despite Q4 2025 GDP revised up to 1.3% on capex strength. BOJ's January outlook remains moderately positive, but traders prioritize leading indicators like the April 14 sentiment slump. Preliminary GDP data due mid-May could catalyze shifts.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
वॉल्यूम
$1,300समाप्ति तिथि
19 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 43.5% implied probability for Japan Q1 2026 GDP growth in the -0.3% to -0.1% range, reflecting heightened downside risks from surging oil prices tied to Middle East tensions, as evidenced by the Reuters Tankan manufacturers' index plunging to 7 in April—its sharpest drop in over three years. This bearish tilt overrides analyst forecasts around 1.3–1.5% annualized (e.g., Daiwa, JCER as of early April), amid soft private consumption and export headwinds from a firm yen, despite Q4 2025 GDP revised up to 1.3% on capex strength. BOJ's January outlook remains moderately positive, but traders prioritize leading indicators like the April 14 sentiment slump. Preliminary GDP data due mid-May could catalyze shifts.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न