With vote counting for Kerala's 140-seat Legislative Assembly election scheduled for May 4 following April 9 polling that saw over 75% turnout by evening, trader consensus slightly favors CPI(M) at 54% implied probability over INC at 45.5%, reflecting a razor-thin contest between the incumbent Left Democratic Front (LDF) and opposition United Democratic Front (UDF). Pre-poll surveys like Manorama-C Voter and others showed overlapping projections—LDF strong in southern districts like Kollam amid welfare schemes and organizational edge, UDF ahead in northern areas leveraging 2024 Lok Sabha gains and anti-incumbency against two-term Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan. Pivotal swing seats (around 20), minority vote consolidation (IUML Muslims bolstering UDF, Christian splits), and negligible NDA spoiler impact keep the race tight; clearer exit poll trends or internal alliance frictions could tip balances before results.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाKerala Legislative Assembly Election Winner
Kerala Legislative Assembly Election Winner
CPI(M) 54%
INC 45%
BSP <1%
CPI <1%
$280,262 वॉल्यूम
$280,262 वॉल्यूम
9 अप्रैल, 2026
CPI(M)
54%
INC
45%
BSP
<1%
CPI
<1%
JD(S)
<1%
RSP
<1%
KEC(M)
<1%
BJP
<1%
NCP
<1%
IUML
<1%
CPI(M) 54%
INC 45%
BSP <1%
CPI <1%
$280,262 वॉल्यूम
$280,262 वॉल्यूम
9 अप्रैल, 2026
CPI(M)
$35,262 वॉल्यूम
54%
INC
$34,767 वॉल्यूम
45%
BSP
$12,297 वॉल्यूम
<1%
CPI
$28,084 वॉल्यूम
<1%
JD(S)
$24,403 वॉल्यूम
<1%
RSP
$13,090 वॉल्यूम
<1%
KEC(M)
$13,613 वॉल्यूम
<1%
BJP
$57,830 वॉल्यूम
<1%
NCP
$45,976 वॉल्यूम
<1%
IUML
$14,939 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).With vote counting for Kerala's 140-seat Legislative Assembly election scheduled for May 4 following April 9 polling that saw over 75% turnout by evening, trader consensus slightly favors CPI(M) at 54% implied probability over INC at 45.5%, reflecting a razor-thin contest between the incumbent Left Democratic Front (LDF) and opposition United Democratic Front (UDF). Pre-poll surveys like Manorama-C Voter and others showed overlapping projections—LDF strong in southern districts like Kollam amid welfare schemes and organizational edge, UDF ahead in northern areas leveraging 2024 Lok Sabha gains and anti-incumbency against two-term Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan. Pivotal swing seats (around 20), minority vote consolidation (IUML Muslims bolstering UDF, Christian splits), and negligible NDA spoiler impact keep the race tight; clearer exit poll trends or internal alliance frictions could tip balances before results.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$280,262समाप्ति तिथि
9 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).With vote counting for Kerala's 140-seat Legislative Assembly election scheduled for May 4 following April 9 polling that saw over 75% turnout by evening, trader consensus slightly favors CPI(M) at 54% implied probability over INC at 45.5%, reflecting a razor-thin contest between the incumbent Left Democratic Front (LDF) and opposition United Democratic Front (UDF). Pre-poll surveys like Manorama-C Voter and others showed overlapping projections—LDF strong in southern districts like Kollam amid welfare schemes and organizational edge, UDF ahead in northern areas leveraging 2024 Lok Sabha gains and anti-incumbency against two-term Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan. Pivotal swing seats (around 20), minority vote consolidation (IUML Muslims bolstering UDF, Christian splits), and negligible NDA spoiler impact keep the race tight; clearer exit poll trends or internal alliance frictions could tip balances before results.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
वॉल्यूम
$280,262समाप्ति तिथि
9 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...With vote counting for Kerala's 140-seat Legislative Assembly election scheduled for May 4 following April 9 polling that saw over 75% turnout by evening, trader consensus slightly favors CPI(M) at 54% implied probability over INC at 45.5%, reflecting a razor-thin contest between the incumbent Left Democratic Front (LDF) and opposition United Democratic Front (UDF). Pre-poll surveys like Manorama-C Voter and others showed overlapping projections—LDF strong in southern districts like Kollam amid welfare schemes and organizational edge, UDF ahead in northern areas leveraging 2024 Lok Sabha gains and anti-incumbency against two-term Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan. Pivotal swing seats (around 20), minority vote consolidation (IUML Muslims bolstering UDF, Christian splits), and negligible NDA spoiler impact keep the race tight; clearer exit poll trends or internal alliance frictions could tip balances before results.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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