Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors fewer than 5 posts by Ayatollah Khamenei's @khamenei_ir account from April 10-17, 2026, at 82% implied probability, driven by its established low-frequency pattern of reposting archival statements—even after his February 2026 martyrdom in U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran. Only one post occurred so far (April 13, quoting a 1995 message on Prophet Jesus), matching prior weeks' sparsity amid geopolitical tensions, leadership transition to Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, and ongoing peace talks involving Iran, Israel, and U.S. officials. Absent major diplomatic breakthroughs or escalations by April 17, traders anticipate no surge, pricing 5-9 posts next at 13% as the sparse baseline persists.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाKhamenei # posts April 10 - April 17, 2026?
Khamenei # posts April 10 - April 17, 2026?
<5 81%
5-9 10%
20-24 5.5%
10-14 2.0%
नया
नया
17 अप्रैल, 2026
<5
81%
5-9
11%
10-14
8%
15-19
9%
20-24
6%
25-29
1%
30-34
2%
35-39
<1%
40-44
2%
45-49
1%
50-54
1%
55-59
<1%
60+
1%
<5 81%
5-9 10%
20-24 5.5%
10-14 2.0%
नया
नया
17 अप्रैल, 2026
<5
$976 वॉल्यूम
81%
5-9
$163 वॉल्यूम
11%
10-14
$241 वॉल्यूम
8%
15-19
$388 वॉल्यूम
9%
20-24
$277 वॉल्यूम
6%
25-29
$456 वॉल्यूम
1%
30-34
$570 वॉल्यूम
2%
35-39
$563 वॉल्यूम
<1%
40-44
$770 वॉल्यूम
2%
45-49
$675 वॉल्यूम
1%
50-54
$841 वॉल्यूम
1%
55-59
$648 वॉल्यूम
<1%
60+
$1,190 वॉल्यूम
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between April 10, 12:00 PM ET and April 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors fewer than 5 posts by Ayatollah Khamenei's @khamenei_ir account from April 10-17, 2026, at 82% implied probability, driven by its established low-frequency pattern of reposting archival statements—even after his February 2026 martyrdom in U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran. Only one post occurred so far (April 13, quoting a 1995 message on Prophet Jesus), matching prior weeks' sparsity amid geopolitical tensions, leadership transition to Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, and ongoing peace talks involving Iran, Israel, and U.S. officials. Absent major diplomatic breakthroughs or escalations by April 17, traders anticipate no surge, pricing 5-9 posts next at 13% as the sparse baseline persists.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between April 10, 12:00 PM ET and April 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
बाज़ार खुला: Apr 7, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$7,760समाप्ति तिथि
17 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 7, 2026, 12:04 AM ETसमाधान स्रोत
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between April 10, 12:00 PM ET and April 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors fewer than 5 posts by Ayatollah Khamenei's @khamenei_ir account from April 10-17, 2026, at 82% implied probability, driven by its established low-frequency pattern of reposting archival statements—even after his February 2026 martyrdom in U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran. Only one post occurred so far (April 13, quoting a 1995 message on Prophet Jesus), matching prior weeks' sparsity amid geopolitical tensions, leadership transition to Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, and ongoing peace talks involving Iran, Israel, and U.S. officials. Absent major diplomatic breakthroughs or escalations by April 17, traders anticipate no surge, pricing 5-9 posts next at 13% as the sparse baseline persists.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between April 10, 12:00 PM ET and April 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
वॉल्यूम
$7,760समाप्ति तिथि
17 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 7, 2026, 12:04 AM ETसमाधान स्रोत
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors fewer than 5 posts by Ayatollah Khamenei's @khamenei_ir account from April 10-17, 2026, at 82% implied probability, driven by its established low-frequency pattern of reposting archival statements—even after his February 2026 martyrdom in U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran. Only one post occurred so far (April 13, quoting a 1995 message on Prophet Jesus), matching prior weeks' sparsity amid geopolitical tensions, leadership transition to Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, and ongoing peace talks involving Iran, Israel, and U.S. officials. Absent major diplomatic breakthroughs or escalations by April 17, traders anticipate no surge, pricing 5-9 posts next at 13% as the sparse baseline persists.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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