**Traders assign a 77.5% implied probability to “No” on a Turkish constitutional referendum being announced in 2026 because the ruling AKP-MHP alliance lacks the 360-seat parliamentary threshold needed to trigger one, and no cross-party agreement has emerged despite ongoing efforts.** President Erdoğan’s second term ends in 2028, and any path to a third candidacy or broader constitutional overhaul—whether via referendum or direct amendment—requires either a three-fifths majority (360 of 600 seats) to call early elections or 400 votes for immediate parliamentary passage. The alliance currently holds roughly 323 seats and has not secured the additional support from opposition or pro-Kurdish DEM lawmakers. Recent developments center on the PKK peace process and related legislation aimed at accelerating militant disbandment, which could potentially draw DEM backing. However, as of mid-September 2026, these talks have not produced the votes or consensus required for a referendum motion. Erdoğan has publicly referenced approaching elections and early-vote scenarios, yet these remain tied to the existing constitutional exception rather than a new referendum. Opposition parties, including the CHP, continue to reject participation in constitutional drafting commissions. No official announcement or qualifying parliamentary action has occurred in 2026, leaving the market priced to reflect the persistent shortfall in legislative support and the absence of a breakthrough catalyst.