Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 77% implied probability that at least one 2026 month will claim the global hottest-on-record title, per NOAA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index, driven primarily by NOAA's latest ENSO forecast signaling a 61% chance of El Niño emergence in May-July that could persist through year-end. This builds on January-March 2026 ranking as the fourth- or fifth-warmest for those months in Copernicus ERA5 and NOAA records—with anomalies of +0.51–1.31°C above baselines—but falling short of absolute records like prior summer peaks. Relentless anthropogenic warming elevates the baseline, while upper-ocean heat accumulation fuels intensification potential; traders eye boreal summer peaks amid model consensus for a top-five warmest year overall. Next Copernicus and NOAA bulletins will refine outlooks.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाक्या 2026 का कोई महीना रिकॉर्ड में सबसे गर्म होगा?
क्या 2026 का कोई महीना रिकॉर्ड में सबसे गर्म होगा?
हाँ
$119,607 वॉल्यूम
$119,607 वॉल्यूम
10 जन, 2027
हाँ
$119,607 वॉल्यूम
$119,607 वॉल्यूम
10 जन, 2027
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 77% implied probability that at least one 2026 month will claim the global hottest-on-record title, per NOAA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index, driven primarily by NOAA's latest ENSO forecast signaling a 61% chance of El Niño emergence in May-July that could persist through year-end. This builds on January-March 2026 ranking as the fourth- or fifth-warmest for those months in Copernicus ERA5 and NOAA records—with anomalies of +0.51–1.31°C above baselines—but falling short of absolute records like prior summer peaks. Relentless anthropogenic warming elevates the baseline, while upper-ocean heat accumulation fuels intensification potential; traders eye boreal summer peaks amid model consensus for a top-five warmest year overall. Next Copernicus and NOAA bulletins will refine outlooks.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
बाज़ार खुला: Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$119,607समाप्ति तिथि
10 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 77% implied probability that at least one 2026 month will claim the global hottest-on-record title, per NOAA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index, driven primarily by NOAA's latest ENSO forecast signaling a 61% chance of El Niño emergence in May-July that could persist through year-end. This builds on January-March 2026 ranking as the fourth- or fifth-warmest for those months in Copernicus ERA5 and NOAA records—with anomalies of +0.51–1.31°C above baselines—but falling short of absolute records like prior summer peaks. Relentless anthropogenic warming elevates the baseline, while upper-ocean heat accumulation fuels intensification potential; traders eye boreal summer peaks amid model consensus for a top-five warmest year overall. Next Copernicus and NOAA bulletins will refine outlooks.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
वॉल्यूम
$119,607समाप्ति तिथि
10 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 77% implied probability that at least one 2026 month will claim the global hottest-on-record title, per NOAA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index, driven primarily by NOAA's latest ENSO forecast signaling a 61% chance of El Niño emergence in May-July that could persist through year-end. This builds on January-March 2026 ranking as the fourth- or fifth-warmest for those months in Copernicus ERA5 and NOAA records—with anomalies of +0.51–1.31°C above baselines—but falling short of absolute records like prior summer peaks. Relentless anthropogenic warming elevates the baseline, while upper-ocean heat accumulation fuels intensification potential; traders eye boreal summer peaks amid model consensus for a top-five warmest year overall. Next Copernicus and NOAA bulletins will refine outlooks.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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