Trader consensus prices a 90.1% implied probability against Reza Pahlavi leading Iran in 2026, driven by the Islamic Republic's post-Khamenei stability despite major shocks. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 28 airstrike death prompted swift appointment of son Mojtaba as successor on March 8, backed by IRGC loyalty and Tehran rallies, quelling widespread collapse fears amid 2025-2026 protests. A US-Iran ceasefire agreed April 8 has de-escalated the 2026 war, easing external pressures for regime change. Pahlavi's March announcements positioning himself for transitional leadership drew US official dismissal as lacking domestic legitimacy, with opposition fragmented and no IRGC defections, underscoring formidable barriers to his ascent by year-end.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाक्या रजा पहलवी 2026 में ईरान का नेतृत्व करेंगे?
क्या रजा पहलवी 2026 में ईरान का नेतृत्व करेंगे?
हाँ
$1,059,069 वॉल्यूम
$1,059,069 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
$1,059,069 वॉल्यूम
$1,059,069 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices a 90.1% implied probability against Reza Pahlavi leading Iran in 2026, driven by the Islamic Republic's post-Khamenei stability despite major shocks. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 28 airstrike death prompted swift appointment of son Mojtaba as successor on March 8, backed by IRGC loyalty and Tehran rallies, quelling widespread collapse fears amid 2025-2026 protests. A US-Iran ceasefire agreed April 8 has de-escalated the 2026 war, easing external pressures for regime change. Pahlavi's March announcements positioning himself for transitional leadership drew US official dismissal as lacking domestic legitimacy, with opposition fragmented and no IRGC defections, underscoring formidable barriers to his ascent by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$1,059,069समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices a 90.1% implied probability against Reza Pahlavi leading Iran in 2026, driven by the Islamic Republic's post-Khamenei stability despite major shocks. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 28 airstrike death prompted swift appointment of son Mojtaba as successor on March 8, backed by IRGC loyalty and Tehran rallies, quelling widespread collapse fears amid 2025-2026 protests. A US-Iran ceasefire agreed April 8 has de-escalated the 2026 war, easing external pressures for regime change. Pahlavi's March announcements positioning himself for transitional leadership drew US official dismissal as lacking domestic legitimacy, with opposition fragmented and no IRGC defections, underscoring formidable barriers to his ascent by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$1,059,069समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 90.1% implied probability against Reza Pahlavi leading Iran in 2026, driven by the Islamic Republic's post-Khamenei stability despite major shocks. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 28 airstrike death prompted swift appointment of son Mojtaba as successor on March 8, backed by IRGC loyalty and Tehran rallies, quelling widespread collapse fears amid 2025-2026 protests. A US-Iran ceasefire agreed April 8 has de-escalated the 2026 war, easing external pressures for regime change. Pahlavi's March announcements positioning himself for transitional leadership drew US official dismissal as lacking domestic legitimacy, with opposition fragmented and no IRGC defections, underscoring formidable barriers to his ascent by year-end.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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