The US military's January 3, 2026, Delta Force raid capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro marked a rare high-risk special operation against a sitting head of state, but no subsequent captures have followed, driving trader consensus to 91% on "No" for another in 2026. A joint US-Israeli airstrike killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28 amid escalating conflict, favoring elimination over capture to minimize risks. Recent US actions—including a Hormuz Strait naval blockade, bounties on militia leaders like Kataib Hezbollah's Ahmad al-Hamidawi, and pilot rescues—focus on airstrikes and intelligence rather than ground raids on world leaders. Absent new intelligence or policy shifts targeting heads of government, significant escalation barriers sustain the low 9% "Yes" probability.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाक्या अमेरिका 2026 में एक और विश्व नेता पर कब्जा करेगा?
क्या अमेरिका 2026 में एक और विश्व नेता पर कब्जा करेगा?
हाँ
$47,731 वॉल्यूम
$47,731 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
$47,731 वॉल्यूम
$47,731 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US military's January 3, 2026, Delta Force raid capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro marked a rare high-risk special operation against a sitting head of state, but no subsequent captures have followed, driving trader consensus to 91% on "No" for another in 2026. A joint US-Israeli airstrike killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28 amid escalating conflict, favoring elimination over capture to minimize risks. Recent US actions—including a Hormuz Strait naval blockade, bounties on militia leaders like Kataib Hezbollah's Ahmad al-Hamidawi, and pilot rescues—focus on airstrikes and intelligence rather than ground raids on world leaders. Absent new intelligence or policy shifts targeting heads of government, significant escalation barriers sustain the low 9% "Yes" probability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$47,731समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US military's January 3, 2026, Delta Force raid capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro marked a rare high-risk special operation against a sitting head of state, but no subsequent captures have followed, driving trader consensus to 91% on "No" for another in 2026. A joint US-Israeli airstrike killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28 amid escalating conflict, favoring elimination over capture to minimize risks. Recent US actions—including a Hormuz Strait naval blockade, bounties on militia leaders like Kataib Hezbollah's Ahmad al-Hamidawi, and pilot rescues—focus on airstrikes and intelligence rather than ground raids on world leaders. Absent new intelligence or policy shifts targeting heads of government, significant escalation barriers sustain the low 9% "Yes" probability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$47,731समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The US military's January 3, 2026, Delta Force raid capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro marked a rare high-risk special operation against a sitting head of state, but no subsequent captures have followed, driving trader consensus to 91% on "No" for another in 2026. A joint US-Israeli airstrike killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28 amid escalating conflict, favoring elimination over capture to minimize risks. Recent US actions—including a Hormuz Strait naval blockade, bounties on militia leaders like Kataib Hezbollah's Ahmad al-Hamidawi, and pilot rescues—focus on airstrikes and intelligence rather than ground raids on world leaders. Absent new intelligence or policy shifts targeting heads of government, significant escalation barriers sustain the low 9% "Yes" probability.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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