Recent reports indicate the Pentagon is accelerating contingency planning for a potential military operation in Cuba should President Trump issue orders, amid heightened rhetoric following U.S. interventions in Venezuela and Iran earlier this year. This has lifted the implied probability of invasion to 23.5%, reflecting trader concerns over Cuba's reported troop deployments to Russia and ongoing oil blockades tightening economic sanctions. However, with U.S. forces committed to the protracted Iran conflict, Democratic lawmakers pushing legislation to block funding for intervention, and Cuban officials signaling military preparedness including drills, the consensus trader pricing at 76.5% for "No" underscores substantial logistical, congressional, and diplomatic barriers to a full-scale invasion by year-end.