US-Iran tensions remain elevated following the collapse of Islamabad peace talks on April 12, prompting President Trump to order a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian ports, escalating military actions amid a fragile two-week ceasefire agreed April 8. The conflict ignited February 28 with US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and missile sites, but no formal congressional war declaration has occurred despite Article I requirements and March debates on war powers resolutions limiting presidential authority. Traders note historical rarity of declarations since World War II, favoring executive actions under existing authorizations; ceasefire expiration around April 22 could trigger renewed airstrikes or diplomacy, shifting odds on official war status.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
$6,004,349 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
April 30
1%
December 31
8%
$6,004,349 Vol.
April 30
$1,069,784 Vol.
1%
December 31
$383,407 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.US-Iran tensions remain elevated following the collapse of Islamabad peace talks on April 12, prompting President Trump to order a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian ports, escalating military actions amid a fragile two-week ceasefire agreed April 8. The conflict ignited February 28 with US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and missile sites, but no formal congressional war declaration has occurred despite Article I requirements and March debates on war powers resolutions limiting presidential authority. Traders note historical rarity of declarations since World War II, favoring executive actions under existing authorizations; ceasefire expiration around April 22 could trigger renewed airstrikes or diplomacy, shifting odds on official war status.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ET
Volume
$6,004,349End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.US-Iran tensions remain elevated following the collapse of Islamabad peace talks on April 12, prompting President Trump to order a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian ports, escalating military actions amid a fragile two-week ceasefire agreed April 8. The conflict ignited February 28 with US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and missile sites, but no formal congressional war declaration has occurred despite Article I requirements and March debates on war powers resolutions limiting presidential authority. Traders note historical rarity of declarations since World War II, favoring executive actions under existing authorizations; ceasefire expiration around April 22 could trigger renewed airstrikes or diplomacy, shifting odds on official war status.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$6,004,349End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran tensions remain elevated following the collapse of Islamabad peace talks on April 12, prompting President Trump to order a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian ports, escalating military actions amid a fragile two-week ceasefire agreed April 8. The conflict ignited February 28 with US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and missile sites, but no formal congressional war declaration has occurred despite Article I requirements and March debates on war powers resolutions limiting presidential authority. Traders note historical rarity of declarations since World War II, favoring executive actions under existing authorizations; ceasefire expiration around April 22 could trigger renewed airstrikes or diplomacy, shifting odds on official war status.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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