**Databricks’ market-implied 96.5% probability of no IPO by June 30, 2026 reflects the absence of an S-1 filing and shifting analyst timelines.** The data and AI platform company raised $4 billion in late 2025 at a $134 billion valuation and added $1.8 billion in debt financing in January 2026, with CEO Ali Ghodsi noting he “wouldn’t rule out” a 2026 listing. However, no confidential filing has occurred as of April 2026, and credible forecasts now point to an S-1 in Q3 2026 followed by a potential Nasdaq debut in late 2026 or early 2027. This extended runway stems from the company’s strong private-market position, 65% YoY revenue growth to a $5.4 billion run rate, and focus on optimizing capital structure ahead of public scrutiny. A last-minute confidential filing and accelerated roadshow could theoretically compress the timeline, though the current preparation pace and regulatory requirements make that outcome improbable before the June cutoff.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiTidak IPO sebelum 30 Juni 2026 96.5%
200–250M 1.6%
100–125M 1.0%
125–150M <1%
$416,206 Vol.
$416,206 Vol.
<100M
<1%
100–125M
1%
125–150M
1%
150–175M
1%
175–200M
<1%
200–250M
2%
250M+
<1%
Tidak IPO sebelum 30 Juni 2026
97%
Tidak IPO sebelum 30 Juni 2026 96.5%
200–250M 1.6%
100–125M 1.0%
125–150M <1%
$416,206 Vol.
$416,206 Vol.
<100M
<1%
100–125M
1%
125–150M
1%
150–175M
1%
175–200M
<1%
200–250M
2%
250M+
<1%
Tidak IPO sebelum 30 Juni 2026
97%
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Databricks’ market-implied 96.5% probability of no IPO by June 30, 2026 reflects the absence of an S-1 filing and shifting analyst timelines.** The data and AI platform company raised $4 billion in late 2025 at a $134 billion valuation and added $1.8 billion in debt financing in January 2026, with CEO Ali Ghodsi noting he “wouldn’t rule out” a 2026 listing. However, no confidential filing has occurred as of April 2026, and credible forecasts now point to an S-1 in Q3 2026 followed by a potential Nasdaq debut in late 2026 or early 2027. This extended runway stems from the company’s strong private-market position, 65% YoY revenue growth to a $5.4 billion run rate, and focus on optimizing capital structure ahead of public scrutiny. A last-minute confidential filing and accelerated roadshow could theoretically compress the timeline, though the current preparation pace and regulatory requirements make that outcome improbable before the June cutoff.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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