**Forecast consensus from multiple meteorological sources positions 30–31°C as the dominant range for Ankara’s September 2 high, aligning closely with the market’s heavy weighting (50.5% for 30°C, 39.5% for 31°C).** Current model guidance and official outlooks from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and international providers indicate sunny to mostly clear skies, light northerly to northeasterly winds of 2–5 m/s, and minimal cloud cover that will maximize daytime solar heating. Dew points in the 5–11°C range and low humidity will support efficient warming without significant moisture-related suppression. These conditions represent a modest departure above the long-term September average high of ~27°C, driven by a stable high-pressure regime and the absence of any incoming frontal systems or stronger advection of cooler air. Ensemble forecasts show tight clustering around 30–31°C with low spread, reflecting high confidence in the absence of major perturbations within the final 24–48 hours before resolution. Traders appear to be pricing this model agreement and the seasonal baseline, while assigning only marginal probability to outliers (e.g., 32°C or higher) that would require unexpected warming or measurement variance at official stations. Updated short-range model runs and any late adjustments to boundary-layer mixing or insolation will be the key near-term variables to monitor.