**Official forecasts from MetService and supporting models point to a daily maximum of 13–14°C for Wellington on 1 September 2026, aligning with the market’s strong preference for 14°C (75.5% implied probability).** Wellington’s early-spring climate features temperate maritime conditions moderated by the surrounding sea and frequent wind shifts between southerlies and northwesterlies. Current model consensus shows scattered showers clearing overnight, followed by light southerlies turning northerly, limiting daytime heating. Hourly guidance from multiple sources (Yr, WeatherBug, Met Office) peaks in the 12–13°C range, while the authoritative MetService outlook explicitly lists 14°C as the high. This narrow band reflects typical September variability around the long-term average high of ~13–15°C, with no strong warm advection or blocking highs to push temperatures higher. The low probabilities assigned to 15°C or above (and sub-13°C outcomes) indicate traders view significant deviations as unlikely given the stable synoptic pattern and short time remaining before resolution. Updated model runs and any late-day observations from Wellington Airport or the city stations will be the key near-term drivers.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Wellington on September 1?
Highest temperature in Wellington on September 1?
14°C 53%
13°C 48%
15°C 3%
16°C <1%
BARU
$33,711 Vol.
BARU
$33,711 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
48%
14°C
62%
15°C
3%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
14°C 53%
13°C 48%
15°C 3%
16°C <1%
BARU
$33,711 Vol.
BARU
$33,711 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
8°C or below
$267 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$330 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$371 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$1,341 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$5,187 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$7,202 Vol.
48%
14°C
$6,385 Vol.
62%
15°C
$5,190 Vol.
3%
16°C
$3,530 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$1,716 Vol.
<1%
18°C or higher
$3,271 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from MetService and supporting models point to a daily maximum of 13–14°C for Wellington on 1 September 2026, aligning with the market’s strong preference for 14°C (75.5% implied probability).**
Wellington’s early-spring climate features temperate maritime conditions moderated by the surrounding sea and frequent wind shifts between southerlies and northwesterlies. Current model consensus shows scattered showers clearing overnight, followed by light southerlies turning northerly, limiting daytime heating. Hourly guidance from multiple sources (Yr, WeatherBug, Met Office) peaks in the 12–13°C range, while the authoritative MetService outlook explicitly lists 14°C as the high.
This narrow band reflects typical September variability around the long-term average high of ~13–15°C, with no strong warm advection or blocking highs to push temperatures higher. The low probabilities assigned to 15°C or above (and sub-13°C outcomes) indicate traders view significant deviations as unlikely given the stable synoptic pattern and short time remaining before resolution. Updated model runs and any late-day observations from Wellington Airport or the city stations will be the key near-term drivers.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$33,711Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from MetService and supporting models point to a daily maximum of 13–14°C for Wellington on 1 September 2026, aligning with the market’s strong preference for 14°C (75.5% implied probability).**
Wellington’s early-spring climate features temperate maritime conditions moderated by the surrounding sea and frequent wind shifts between southerlies and northwesterlies. Current model consensus shows scattered showers clearing overnight, followed by light southerlies turning northerly, limiting daytime heating. Hourly guidance from multiple sources (Yr, WeatherBug, Met Office) peaks in the 12–13°C range, while the authoritative MetService outlook explicitly lists 14°C as the high.
This narrow band reflects typical September variability around the long-term average high of ~13–15°C, with no strong warm advection or blocking highs to push temperatures higher. The low probabilities assigned to 15°C or above (and sub-13°C outcomes) indicate traders view significant deviations as unlikely given the stable synoptic pattern and short time remaining before resolution. Updated model runs and any late-day observations from Wellington Airport or the city stations will be the key near-term drivers.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$33,711Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official forecasts from MetService and supporting models point to a daily maximum of 13–14°C for Wellington on 1 September 2026, aligning with the market’s strong preference for 14°C (75.5% implied probability).** Wellington’s early-spring climate features temperate maritime conditions moderated by the surrounding sea and frequent wind shifts between southerlies and northwesterlies. Current model consensus shows scattered showers clearing overnight, followed by light southerlies turning northerly, limiting daytime heating. Hourly guidance from multiple sources (Yr, WeatherBug, Met Office) peaks in the 12–13°C range, while the authoritative MetService outlook explicitly lists 14°C as the high. This narrow band reflects typical September variability around the long-term average high of ~13–15°C, with no strong warm advection or blocking highs to push temperatures higher. The low probabilities assigned to 15°C or above (and sub-13°C outcomes) indicate traders view significant deviations as unlikely given the stable synoptic pattern and short time remaining before resolution. Updated model runs and any late-day observations from Wellington Airport or the city stations will be the key near-term drivers.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan