Current National Weather Service and private model consensus points to a Chicago high near the early-August climatological normal of 83–84 °F on August 5, driving the heaviest market weighting toward the 80–83 °F bins. Lake Michigan’s moderating lake breeze, modest 850-hPa temperatures, and limited warm-air advection keep extreme outcomes (>86 °F or <78 °F) improbable, though variable cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture introduce spread across adjacent ranges. Traders monitor afternoon NWS updates and lake-breeze timing for last-minute shifts, as historical analogs show similar setups frequently resolve within 2–3 °F of the mean. The dispersed probabilities reflect genuine forecast uncertainty typical for a single-day temperature market.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Chicago on August 5?
Highest temperature in Chicago on August 5?
80-81°F 33%
82-83°F 24%
78-79°F 17%
84-85°F 9.8%
BARU
$25,871 Vol.
BARU
$25,871 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
75°F or below
<1%
76-77°F
9%
78-79°F
17%
80-81°F
33%
82-83°F
24%
84-85°F
10%
86-87°F
4%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94°F or higher
<1%
80-81°F 33%
82-83°F 24%
78-79°F 17%
84-85°F 9.8%
BARU
$25,871 Vol.
BARU
$25,871 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
75°F or below
$7,350 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$2,744 Vol.
9%
78-79°F
$2,184 Vol.
17%
80-81°F
$3,984 Vol.
33%
82-83°F
$1,672 Vol.
24%
84-85°F
$3,930 Vol.
10%
86-87°F
$1,842 Vol.
4%
88-89°F
$903 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$547 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$524 Vol.
<1%
94°F or higher
$483 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and private model consensus points to a Chicago high near the early-August climatological normal of 83–84 °F on August 5, driving the heaviest market weighting toward the 80–83 °F bins. Lake Michigan’s moderating lake breeze, modest 850-hPa temperatures, and limited warm-air advection keep extreme outcomes (>86 °F or <78 °F) improbable, though variable cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture introduce spread across adjacent ranges. Traders monitor afternoon NWS updates and lake-breeze timing for last-minute shifts, as historical analogs show similar setups frequently resolve within 2–3 °F of the mean. The dispersed probabilities reflect genuine forecast uncertainty typical for a single-day temperature market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 3, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$25,871Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 5, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 3, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and private model consensus points to a Chicago high near the early-August climatological normal of 83–84 °F on August 5, driving the heaviest market weighting toward the 80–83 °F bins. Lake Michigan’s moderating lake breeze, modest 850-hPa temperatures, and limited warm-air advection keep extreme outcomes (>86 °F or <78 °F) improbable, though variable cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture introduce spread across adjacent ranges. Traders monitor afternoon NWS updates and lake-breeze timing for last-minute shifts, as historical analogs show similar setups frequently resolve within 2–3 °F of the mean. The dispersed probabilities reflect genuine forecast uncertainty typical for a single-day temperature market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$25,871Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 5, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 3, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current National Weather Service and private model consensus points to a Chicago high near the early-August climatological normal of 83–84 °F on August 5, driving the heaviest market weighting toward the 80–83 °F bins. Lake Michigan’s moderating lake breeze, modest 850-hPa temperatures, and limited warm-air advection keep extreme outcomes (>86 °F or <78 °F) improbable, though variable cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture introduce spread across adjacent ranges. Traders monitor afternoon NWS updates and lake-breeze timing for last-minute shifts, as historical analogs show similar setups frequently resolve within 2–3 °F of the mean. The dispersed probabilities reflect genuine forecast uncertainty typical for a single-day temperature market.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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