Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance for Chicago on August 6 points to a high near or slightly below the long-term normal of 83.5 °F, with ensemble forecasts clustering in the upper 70s to low 80s. Lake Michigan’s moderating influence, combined with lingering cloud cover and possible light showers or haze from upstream moisture, is limiting daytime heating and keeping maximum temperatures from reaching the mid-80s or higher. Trader consensus reflected in the 78–81 °F bins (collectively ~64 %) therefore aligns with model consensus and climatological baselines for early August, while the low probabilities assigned to 84 °F+ outcomes reflect the absence of strong southerly flow or clear-sky conditions that would support greater warming. Updated model runs and the next NWS forecast discussion are the key near-term catalysts that could shift these implied probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Chicago on August 6?
Highest temperature in Chicago on August 6?
78-79°F 39%
80-81°F 27%
76-77°F 23%
82-83°F 9%
BARU
BARU
Aug 6, 2026
73°F or below
1%
74-75°F
7%
76-77°F
23%
78-79°F
39%
80-81°F
27%
82-83°F
9%
84-85°F
1%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92°F or higher
<1%
78-79°F 39%
80-81°F 27%
76-77°F 23%
82-83°F 9%
BARU
BARU
Aug 6, 2026
73°F or below
$29 Vol.
1%
74-75°F
$506 Vol.
7%
76-77°F
$73 Vol.
23%
78-79°F
$179 Vol.
39%
80-81°F
$216 Vol.
27%
82-83°F
$195 Vol.
9%
84-85°F
$579 Vol.
1%
86-87°F
$73 Vol.
1%
88-89°F
$106 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$391 Vol.
<1%
92°F or higher
$386 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance for Chicago on August 6 points to a high near or slightly below the long-term normal of 83.5 °F, with ensemble forecasts clustering in the upper 70s to low 80s. Lake Michigan’s moderating influence, combined with lingering cloud cover and possible light showers or haze from upstream moisture, is limiting daytime heating and keeping maximum temperatures from reaching the mid-80s or higher. Trader consensus reflected in the 78–81 °F bins (collectively ~64 %) therefore aligns with model consensus and climatological baselines for early August, while the low probabilities assigned to 84 °F+ outcomes reflect the absence of strong southerly flow or clear-sky conditions that would support greater warming. Updated model runs and the next NWS forecast discussion are the key near-term catalysts that could shift these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 4, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$2,732Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 6, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 4, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance for Chicago on August 6 points to a high near or slightly below the long-term normal of 83.5 °F, with ensemble forecasts clustering in the upper 70s to low 80s. Lake Michigan’s moderating influence, combined with lingering cloud cover and possible light showers or haze from upstream moisture, is limiting daytime heating and keeping maximum temperatures from reaching the mid-80s or higher. Trader consensus reflected in the 78–81 °F bins (collectively ~64 %) therefore aligns with model consensus and climatological baselines for early August, while the low probabilities assigned to 84 °F+ outcomes reflect the absence of strong southerly flow or clear-sky conditions that would support greater warming. Updated model runs and the next NWS forecast discussion are the key near-term catalysts that could shift these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,732Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 6, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 4, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance for Chicago on August 6 points to a high near or slightly below the long-term normal of 83.5 °F, with ensemble forecasts clustering in the upper 70s to low 80s. Lake Michigan’s moderating influence, combined with lingering cloud cover and possible light showers or haze from upstream moisture, is limiting daytime heating and keeping maximum temperatures from reaching the mid-80s or higher. Trader consensus reflected in the 78–81 °F bins (collectively ~64 %) therefore aligns with model consensus and climatological baselines for early August, while the low probabilities assigned to 84 °F+ outcomes reflect the absence of strong southerly flow or clear-sky conditions that would support greater warming. Updated model runs and the next NWS forecast discussion are the key near-term catalysts that could shift these implied probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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