A warm, dry air mass over southeastern Brazil is driving the current heat wave, with official forecasts from Climatempo, CGE, and INMET indicating clear to partly cloudy skies, strong solar heating, and light northwesterly winds favoring a peak temperature near 33–34°C in São Paulo on August 29. Model runs show slight spread—some projecting 32–34°C under subsidence and low humidity around 20–30%, while others cap nearer 31°C amid minor cloud increases—creating the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those thresholds. This exceeds August climatology by 8–10°C, though resolution depends on exact afternoon maximum readings from official stations; updated model guidance and afternoon observations tomorrow will likely refine trader consensus ahead of settlement.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 29?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 29?
34°C 44%
33°C 28%
32°C 16%
35°C 14%
BARU
BARU
Aug 29, 2026
28°C or below
1%
29°C
1%
30°C
3%
31°C
6%
32°C
16%
33°C
28%
34°C
44%
35°C
14%
36°C
4%
37°C
3%
38°C or higher
1%
34°C 44%
33°C 28%
32°C 16%
35°C 14%
BARU
BARU
Aug 29, 2026
28°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
29°C
$0 Vol.
1%
30°C
$0 Vol.
3%
31°C
$0 Vol.
6%
32°C
$38 Vol.
16%
33°C
$88 Vol.
28%
34°C
$14 Vol.
44%
35°C
$256 Vol.
14%
36°C
$0 Vol.
4%
37°C
$0 Vol.
3%
38°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A warm, dry air mass over southeastern Brazil is driving the current heat wave, with official forecasts from Climatempo, CGE, and INMET indicating clear to partly cloudy skies, strong solar heating, and light northwesterly winds favoring a peak temperature near 33–34°C in São Paulo on August 29. Model runs show slight spread—some projecting 32–34°C under subsidence and low humidity around 20–30%, while others cap nearer 31°C amid minor cloud increases—creating the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those thresholds. This exceeds August climatology by 8–10°C, though resolution depends on exact afternoon maximum readings from official stations; updated model guidance and afternoon observations tomorrow will likely refine trader consensus ahead of settlement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 27, 2026, 8:55 PM ET
Volume
$344Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 29, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 27, 2026, 8:55 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A warm, dry air mass over southeastern Brazil is driving the current heat wave, with official forecasts from Climatempo, CGE, and INMET indicating clear to partly cloudy skies, strong solar heating, and light northwesterly winds favoring a peak temperature near 33–34°C in São Paulo on August 29. Model runs show slight spread—some projecting 32–34°C under subsidence and low humidity around 20–30%, while others cap nearer 31°C amid minor cloud increases—creating the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those thresholds. This exceeds August climatology by 8–10°C, though resolution depends on exact afternoon maximum readings from official stations; updated model guidance and afternoon observations tomorrow will likely refine trader consensus ahead of settlement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$344Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 29, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 27, 2026, 8:55 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...A warm, dry air mass over southeastern Brazil is driving the current heat wave, with official forecasts from Climatempo, CGE, and INMET indicating clear to partly cloudy skies, strong solar heating, and light northwesterly winds favoring a peak temperature near 33–34°C in São Paulo on August 29. Model runs show slight spread—some projecting 32–34°C under subsidence and low humidity around 20–30%, while others cap nearer 31°C amid minor cloud increases—creating the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those thresholds. This exceeds August climatology by 8–10°C, though resolution depends on exact afternoon maximum readings from official stations; updated model guidance and afternoon observations tomorrow will likely refine trader consensus ahead of settlement.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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