Illinois's 5th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean rooted in its Chicago-area demographics and voting patterns, supporting incumbent Mike Quigley's position after he secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 65 percent of the vote. Republican nominee Tom Hanson advanced from a less contested primary, yet the seat's historical margins and lack of competitive indicators reinforce trader consensus around a Democratic hold in the November general election. With no major shifts in polling, endorsements, or district dynamics reported since the primaries, the implied probability reflects established electoral math favoring the incumbent party. Late developments such as an unexpected scandal or turnout anomaly remain the primary theoretical paths to altering the outcome.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiIL-05 House Election Winner
IL-05 House Election Winner
BARU
BARU
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
BARU
BARU
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$7,751 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$1,493 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Illinois's 5th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean rooted in its Chicago-area demographics and voting patterns, supporting incumbent Mike Quigley's position after he secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 65 percent of the vote. Republican nominee Tom Hanson advanced from a less contested primary, yet the seat's historical margins and lack of competitive indicators reinforce trader consensus around a Democratic hold in the November general election. With no major shifts in polling, endorsements, or district dynamics reported since the primaries, the implied probability reflects established electoral math favoring the incumbent party. Late developments such as an unexpected scandal or turnout anomaly remain the primary theoretical paths to altering the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$9,244Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Illinois's 5th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean rooted in its Chicago-area demographics and voting patterns, supporting incumbent Mike Quigley's position after he secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 65 percent of the vote. Republican nominee Tom Hanson advanced from a less contested primary, yet the seat's historical margins and lack of competitive indicators reinforce trader consensus around a Democratic hold in the November general election. With no major shifts in polling, endorsements, or district dynamics reported since the primaries, the implied probability reflects established electoral math favoring the incumbent party. Late developments such as an unexpected scandal or turnout anomaly remain the primary theoretical paths to altering the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$9,244Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Illinois's 5th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean rooted in its Chicago-area demographics and voting patterns, supporting incumbent Mike Quigley's position after he secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 65 percent of the vote. Republican nominee Tom Hanson advanced from a less contested primary, yet the seat's historical margins and lack of competitive indicators reinforce trader consensus around a Democratic hold in the November general election. With no major shifts in polling, endorsements, or district dynamics reported since the primaries, the implied probability reflects established electoral math favoring the incumbent party. Late developments such as an unexpected scandal or turnout anomaly remain the primary theoretical paths to altering the outcome.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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