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icon for Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?
Ekonomi·Tarif Fed

Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?

icon for Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?
Ekonomi·Tarif Fed

Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?

3% peluang
Polymarket
BARU
3% peluang
Polymarket
BARU
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The termination of the DOJ criminal investigation into Jerome Powell in April 2026, without charges or evidence of wrongdoing related to Federal Reserve renovation testimony, underpins the 97.2% market-implied odds against incarceration before 2027. As the former chair now serving out his Board of Governors term through 2028, Powell faces no active proceedings amid longstanding institutional protections for senior monetary policymakers. Traders price in this outcome based on the absence of substantiated legal exposure and historical precedent for such actions against Fed leadership. While near-certain consensus prevails, tail-risk scenarios such as renewed politically motivated referrals or extraordinary congressional escalations remain theoretically possible, though courts have previously dismissed similar claims lacking evidentiary basis.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$5,740
Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070be91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The termination of the DOJ criminal investigation into Jerome Powell in April 2026, without charges or evidence of wrongdoing related to Federal Reserve renovation testimony, underpins the 97.2% market-implied odds against incarceration before 2027. As the former chair now serving out his Board of Governors term through 2028, Powell faces no active proceedings amid longstanding institutional protections for senior monetary policymakers. Traders price in this outcome based on the absence of substantiated legal exposure and historical precedent for such actions against Fed leadership. While near-certain consensus prevails, tail-risk scenarios such as renewed politically motivated referrals or extraordinary congressional escalations remain theoretically possible, though courts have previously dismissed similar claims lacking evidentiary basis.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0
Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070be91...

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham "Ya" atau "Tidak" berdasarkan apakah mereka yakin event ini akan terjadi. Probabilitas crowd-sourced saat ini adalah 4% untuk "Yes." Misalnya, jika "Ya" dihargai 4¢, pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 4% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

"Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?" adalah pasar yang baru dibuat di Polymarket, diluncurkan pada Jan 12, 2026. Sebagai pasar awal, ini adalah kesempatanmu untuk menjadi salah satu trader pertama yang menetapkan peluang dan membangun sinyal harga awal pasar. Kamu juga bisa menandai halaman ini untuk melacak volume dan aktivitas trading seiring pasar mendapatkan traksi.

Untuk trading di "Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?," cukup pilih apakah kamu yakin jawabannya "Ya" atau "Tidak." Setiap sisi memiliki harga saat ini yang mencerminkan probabilitas tersirat pasar. Masukkan jumlah kamu dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" dan hasilnya diselesaikan sebagai "Ya," setiap saham membayar $1. Jika diselesaikan sebagai "Tidak," saham "Ya" kamu bernilai $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Probabilitas saat ini untuk "Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?" adalah 4% untuk "Yes." Ini berarti keramaian Polymarket saat ini percaya ada peluang 4% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time berdasarkan trade aktual, memberikan sinyal yang terus diperbarui tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.