**Forecast models from the Finnish Meteorological Institute and European ensembles indicate overnight minimum temperatures in Helsinki on August 28 will most likely settle between 12–15 °C, with 13–14 °C emerging as the narrowest range under current guidance.** Light southeasterly winds, increasing cloud cover, and moderate humidity will limit radiative cooling compared with clearer, calmer nights, while the moderating influence of the Baltic Sea keeps values well above the long-term August average low of 12.1 °C. Recent model runs show little shift in this range, producing the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 13 °C (44 %) and 14 °C (42 %). Traders are weighting the central tendency of high-resolution and ensemble output while assigning lower odds to outliers below 10 °C or above 15 °C that would require stronger cold-air advection or unexpected clear-sky intensification not currently signaled.