Recent GFS and regional model runs for Moscow on September 16 point to clear skies and light northerly winds allowing radiational cooling overnight, with minimum temperatures expected near 8–10 °C according to multiple forecasts. Trader consensus reflected in the elevated implied probabilities for 4–6 °C outcomes likely incorporates recent cooler nights—such as the 5.1 °C low recorded on September 9—and uncertainty around official station readings versus model guidance. Historical September minima average around 9 °C, yet the tight clustering around mid-single digits suggests markets are weighting potential for stronger cooling under calm, dry conditions. Updated model runs and official observations later today will provide the clearest signals for resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Moscow on September 16?
Lowest temperature in Moscow on September 16?
6°C 58%
5°C 41%
4°C 39%
7°C 27%
BARU
BARU
Sep 16, 2026
1°C or below
1%
2°C
8%
3°C
7%
4°C
39%
5°C
41%
6°C
58%
7°C
27%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C or higher
<1%
6°C 58%
5°C 41%
4°C 39%
7°C 27%
BARU
BARU
Sep 16, 2026
1°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
2°C
$0 Vol.
8%
3°C
$0 Vol.
7%
4°C
$0 Vol.
39%
5°C
$5 Vol.
41%
6°C
$0 Vol.
58%
7°C
$16 Vol.
27%
8°C
$16 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$30 Vol.
<1%
11°C or higher
$22 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent GFS and regional model runs for Moscow on September 16 point to clear skies and light northerly winds allowing radiational cooling overnight, with minimum temperatures expected near 8–10 °C according to multiple forecasts. Trader consensus reflected in the elevated implied probabilities for 4–6 °C outcomes likely incorporates recent cooler nights—such as the 5.1 °C low recorded on September 9—and uncertainty around official station readings versus model guidance. Historical September minima average around 9 °C, yet the tight clustering around mid-single digits suggests markets are weighting potential for stronger cooling under calm, dry conditions. Updated model runs and official observations later today will provide the clearest signals for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 14, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$88Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 16, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 14, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent GFS and regional model runs for Moscow on September 16 point to clear skies and light northerly winds allowing radiational cooling overnight, with minimum temperatures expected near 8–10 °C according to multiple forecasts. Trader consensus reflected in the elevated implied probabilities for 4–6 °C outcomes likely incorporates recent cooler nights—such as the 5.1 °C low recorded on September 9—and uncertainty around official station readings versus model guidance. Historical September minima average around 9 °C, yet the tight clustering around mid-single digits suggests markets are weighting potential for stronger cooling under calm, dry conditions. Updated model runs and official observations later today will provide the clearest signals for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$88Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 16, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 14, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent GFS and regional model runs for Moscow on September 16 point to clear skies and light northerly winds allowing radiational cooling overnight, with minimum temperatures expected near 8–10 °C according to multiple forecasts. Trader consensus reflected in the elevated implied probabilities for 4–6 °C outcomes likely incorporates recent cooler nights—such as the 5.1 °C low recorded on September 9—and uncertainty around official station readings versus model guidance. Historical September minima average around 9 °C, yet the tight clustering around mid-single digits suggests markets are weighting potential for stronger cooling under calm, dry conditions. Updated model runs and official observations later today will provide the clearest signals for resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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