Official JMA forecasts and ensemble model consensus position a 25°C overnight low as the leading outcome for Tokyo on August 24, driven by lingering cloud cover and elevated humidity from a weakening frontal system that has kept recent minima between 23–25°C. Southerly flow and mostly cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions are expected to limit radiative cooling overnight, while daytime highs near 34–35°C sustain the warm, moist boundary layer. Recent observations confirm this pattern, with light precipitation and high dew points suppressing sharper drops. Updated model runs and JMA guidance over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift implied probabilities toward 24°C or 26°C if cloud cover or winds evolve differently.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 24?
25°C 43%
26°C 36%
23°C 14%
24°C 14%
BARU
BARU
Aug 24, 2026
19°C or below
1%
20°C
2%
21°C
2%
22°C
6%
23°C
14%
24°C
14%
25°C
43%
26°C
36%
27°C
7%
28°C
4%
29°C or higher
4%
25°C 43%
26°C 36%
23°C 14%
24°C 14%
BARU
BARU
Aug 24, 2026
19°C or below
$5 Vol.
1%
20°C
$5 Vol.
2%
21°C
$5 Vol.
2%
22°C
$1 Vol.
6%
23°C
$0 Vol.
14%
24°C
$0 Vol.
14%
25°C
$17 Vol.
43%
26°C
$98 Vol.
36%
27°C
$0 Vol.
7%
28°C
$0 Vol.
4%
29°C or higher
$5 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official JMA forecasts and ensemble model consensus position a 25°C overnight low as the leading outcome for Tokyo on August 24, driven by lingering cloud cover and elevated humidity from a weakening frontal system that has kept recent minima between 23–25°C. Southerly flow and mostly cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions are expected to limit radiative cooling overnight, while daytime highs near 34–35°C sustain the warm, moist boundary layer. Recent observations confirm this pattern, with light precipitation and high dew points suppressing sharper drops. Updated model runs and JMA guidance over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift implied probabilities toward 24°C or 26°C if cloud cover or winds evolve differently.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$136Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 24, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official JMA forecasts and ensemble model consensus position a 25°C overnight low as the leading outcome for Tokyo on August 24, driven by lingering cloud cover and elevated humidity from a weakening frontal system that has kept recent minima between 23–25°C. Southerly flow and mostly cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions are expected to limit radiative cooling overnight, while daytime highs near 34–35°C sustain the warm, moist boundary layer. Recent observations confirm this pattern, with light precipitation and high dew points suppressing sharper drops. Updated model runs and JMA guidance over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift implied probabilities toward 24°C or 26°C if cloud cover or winds evolve differently.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$136Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 24, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official JMA forecasts and ensemble model consensus position a 25°C overnight low as the leading outcome for Tokyo on August 24, driven by lingering cloud cover and elevated humidity from a weakening frontal system that has kept recent minima between 23–25°C. Southerly flow and mostly cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions are expected to limit radiative cooling overnight, while daytime highs near 34–35°C sustain the warm, moist boundary layer. Recent observations confirm this pattern, with light precipitation and high dew points suppressing sharper drops. Updated model runs and JMA guidance over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift implied probabilities toward 24°C or 26°C if cloud cover or winds evolve differently.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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