Current forecasts from MetService, NOAA-influenced models, and local stations indicate a Monday night low near 5–8 °C for Wellington, driven by strong northwesterlies shifting to clearer, radiatively cooling conditions under a weak high-pressure ridge following recent above-average August temperatures (+0.6 °C anomaly). Historical climatology places typical late-August minima around 9 °C, with the current setup favoring modest overnight drops rather than extremes. Trader consensus reflected in the 42 % implied probability for a 15 °C-or-higher low and clustered 24–30 % odds around 9–11 °C captures uncertainty in model runs and potential wind-mixing effects that could limit cooling, while lower buckets (≤8 °C at <15 % combined) price the risk of clearer, calmer conditions. Updated NHC-analog guidance and station observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Wellington on August 31?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on August 31?
15°C or higher 60%
8°C 49%
12°C 49%
13°C 43%
BARU
BARU
Aug 31, 2026
5°C or below
4%
6°C
22%
7°C
11%
8°C
49%
9°C
27%
10°C
32%
11°C
27%
12°C
49%
13°C
43%
14°C
2%
15°C or higher
60%
15°C or higher 60%
8°C 49%
12°C 49%
13°C 43%
BARU
BARU
Aug 31, 2026
5°C or below
$0 Vol.
4%
6°C
$0 Vol.
22%
7°C
$0 Vol.
11%
8°C
$0 Vol.
49%
9°C
$0 Vol.
27%
10°C
$0 Vol.
32%
11°C
$0 Vol.
27%
12°C
$0 Vol.
49%
13°C
$0 Vol.
43%
14°C
$0 Vol.
2%
15°C or higher
$0 Vol.
60%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from MetService, NOAA-influenced models, and local stations indicate a Monday night low near 5–8 °C for Wellington, driven by strong northwesterlies shifting to clearer, radiatively cooling conditions under a weak high-pressure ridge following recent above-average August temperatures (+0.6 °C anomaly). Historical climatology places typical late-August minima around 9 °C, with the current setup favoring modest overnight drops rather than extremes. Trader consensus reflected in the 42 % implied probability for a 15 °C-or-higher low and clustered 24–30 % odds around 9–11 °C captures uncertainty in model runs and potential wind-mixing effects that could limit cooling, while lower buckets (≤8 °C at <15 % combined) price the risk of clearer, calmer conditions. Updated NHC-analog guidance and station observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 29, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 29, 2026, 12:29 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from MetService, NOAA-influenced models, and local stations indicate a Monday night low near 5–8 °C for Wellington, driven by strong northwesterlies shifting to clearer, radiatively cooling conditions under a weak high-pressure ridge following recent above-average August temperatures (+0.6 °C anomaly). Historical climatology places typical late-August minima around 9 °C, with the current setup favoring modest overnight drops rather than extremes. Trader consensus reflected in the 42 % implied probability for a 15 °C-or-higher low and clustered 24–30 % odds around 9–11 °C captures uncertainty in model runs and potential wind-mixing effects that could limit cooling, while lower buckets (≤8 °C at <15 % combined) price the risk of clearer, calmer conditions. Updated NHC-analog guidance and station observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 29, 2026, 12:29 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from MetService, NOAA-influenced models, and local stations indicate a Monday night low near 5–8 °C for Wellington, driven by strong northwesterlies shifting to clearer, radiatively cooling conditions under a weak high-pressure ridge following recent above-average August temperatures (+0.6 °C anomaly). Historical climatology places typical late-August minima around 9 °C, with the current setup favoring modest overnight drops rather than extremes. Trader consensus reflected in the 42 % implied probability for a 15 °C-or-higher low and clustered 24–30 % odds around 9–11 °C captures uncertainty in model runs and potential wind-mixing effects that could limit cooling, while lower buckets (≤8 °C at <15 % combined) price the risk of clearer, calmer conditions. Updated NHC-analog guidance and station observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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