Massachusetts’ 4th congressional district has long favored Democratic candidates, reflected in the current trader consensus assigning the party a 94 percent implied probability of holding the seat. Incumbent Jake Auchincloss faces only modest primary opposition ahead of the September 1, 2026, Democratic primary, while Republican contenders remain marginal in a district that last elected a GOP member in 1994. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic, consistent with the area’s voting patterns across recent cycles. A late scandal, health issue, or unusually strong national Republican wave could narrow the margin, though structural and historical factors would still need to shift substantially for the outcome to change.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiMA-04 House Election Winner
MA-04 House Election Winner
$45,764 Vol.
$45,764 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
3%
$45,764 Vol.
$45,764 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$22,330 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$23,433 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Massachusetts’ 4th congressional district has long favored Democratic candidates, reflected in the current trader consensus assigning the party a 94 percent implied probability of holding the seat. Incumbent Jake Auchincloss faces only modest primary opposition ahead of the September 1, 2026, Democratic primary, while Republican contenders remain marginal in a district that last elected a GOP member in 1994. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic, consistent with the area’s voting patterns across recent cycles. A late scandal, health issue, or unusually strong national Republican wave could narrow the margin, though structural and historical factors would still need to shift substantially for the outcome to change.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$45,764Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Massachusetts’ 4th congressional district has long favored Democratic candidates, reflected in the current trader consensus assigning the party a 94 percent implied probability of holding the seat. Incumbent Jake Auchincloss faces only modest primary opposition ahead of the September 1, 2026, Democratic primary, while Republican contenders remain marginal in a district that last elected a GOP member in 1994. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic, consistent with the area’s voting patterns across recent cycles. A late scandal, health issue, or unusually strong national Republican wave could narrow the margin, though structural and historical factors would still need to shift substantially for the outcome to change.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$45,764Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Massachusetts’ 4th congressional district has long favored Democratic candidates, reflected in the current trader consensus assigning the party a 94 percent implied probability of holding the seat. Incumbent Jake Auchincloss faces only modest primary opposition ahead of the September 1, 2026, Democratic primary, while Republican contenders remain marginal in a district that last elected a GOP member in 1994. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic, consistent with the area’s voting patterns across recent cycles. A late scandal, health issue, or unusually strong national Republican wave could narrow the margin, though structural and historical factors would still need to shift substantially for the outcome to change.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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