Virginia’s effort to enact a new congressional map for the 2026 midterms relied on a constitutional amendment passed by the General Assembly and approved by voters in the April 2026 referendum, which would have enabled mid-decade redistricting and shifted the state’s 6-5 Democratic delegation toward a stronger Democratic tilt. The Virginia Supreme Court overturned the amendment in May 2026 on procedural grounds related to legislative approval requirements, and the U.S. Supreme Court declined further review later that month, leaving the existing district lines in place. With the November election now less than four months away and no successful legislative or legal path remaining to revive the map, traders assign overwhelming probability to the status quo outcome. Late-session legislation or another voter initiative remains theoretically possible but faces steep constitutional hurdles and timing constraints that have kept market odds stable near certainty.