Virginia’s attempt at mid-decade congressional redistricting for the 2026 midterms was halted when the state Supreme Court invalidated the enabling constitutional amendment on procedural grounds in May 2026, a ruling the U.S. Supreme Court declined to review. The 2021 district lines therefore remain in effect, consistent with the independent redistricting commission process and the requirement for amendments to pass two consecutive legislative sessions with an intervening election. This sequence of events, finalized well before November, underpins the near-certain trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Late developments capable of altering the outcome remain narrow, such as an unforeseen court intervention or legislative workaround meeting all constitutional thresholds in the limited time before ballots are finalized.