New York’s 18th congressional district features a Democratic incumbent seeking reelection in 2026 amid a midterm environment where the party has maintained structural advantages in voter registration, fundraising, and recent performance in Hudson Valley suburbs. Traders price the Democratic nominee at 90.4 percent implied probability because primary results, early polling aggregates, and historical turnout patterns in the district have reinforced this positioning. A Republican victory would require an unusually large national swing, a high-profile scandal affecting the incumbent, or an exceptionally strong challenger drawing crossover support from independents and suburban moderates. Scheduled debates, candidate filings, and fall campaign spending trends remain key variables that could still shift odds before November.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNY-18 House Election Winner
NY-18 House Election Winner
$34,705 Vol.
$34,705 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
90%
Republican Party
10%
$34,705 Vol.
$34,705 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$32,682 Vol.
90%
Republican Party
$2,023 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 18th congressional district features a Democratic incumbent seeking reelection in 2026 amid a midterm environment where the party has maintained structural advantages in voter registration, fundraising, and recent performance in Hudson Valley suburbs. Traders price the Democratic nominee at 90.4 percent implied probability because primary results, early polling aggregates, and historical turnout patterns in the district have reinforced this positioning. A Republican victory would require an unusually large national swing, a high-profile scandal affecting the incumbent, or an exceptionally strong challenger drawing crossover support from independents and suburban moderates. Scheduled debates, candidate filings, and fall campaign spending trends remain key variables that could still shift odds before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Volume
$34,705Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 18th congressional district features a Democratic incumbent seeking reelection in 2026 amid a midterm environment where the party has maintained structural advantages in voter registration, fundraising, and recent performance in Hudson Valley suburbs. Traders price the Democratic nominee at 90.4 percent implied probability because primary results, early polling aggregates, and historical turnout patterns in the district have reinforced this positioning. A Republican victory would require an unusually large national swing, a high-profile scandal affecting the incumbent, or an exceptionally strong challenger drawing crossover support from independents and suburban moderates. Scheduled debates, candidate filings, and fall campaign spending trends remain key variables that could still shift odds before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$34,705Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New York’s 18th congressional district features a Democratic incumbent seeking reelection in 2026 amid a midterm environment where the party has maintained structural advantages in voter registration, fundraising, and recent performance in Hudson Valley suburbs. Traders price the Democratic nominee at 90.4 percent implied probability because primary results, early polling aggregates, and historical turnout patterns in the district have reinforced this positioning. A Republican victory would require an unusually large national swing, a high-profile scandal affecting the incumbent, or an exceptionally strong challenger drawing crossover support from independents and suburban moderates. Scheduled debates, candidate filings, and fall campaign spending trends remain key variables that could still shift odds before November.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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