The tight race in Rosemont reflects a competitive split between Québec solidaire candidate Gisèle Pouhe Njall and Parti Québécois nominee Pierre-Luc Brillant, following the departure of former independent MNA Vincent Marissal. Recent polling aggregates and riding projections place these two parties neck-and-neck in popular vote estimates around 30-39%, consistent with the district's history of strong progressive support that has often divided between the parties. Lower implied probabilities for Liberal David Lavoie, CAQ's Nour Aliyah Attié, and Conservative Mildred Mathieu align with their weaker recent results in the Montreal riding. With nominations closing September 17 and the October 5 vote approaching, further campaign developments on local priorities such as housing and education, or differential turnout among left-leaning voters, could widen the gap between the frontrunners.