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icon for US bank failure by May 31?
Ekonomi·Bisnis

US bank failure by May 31?

icon for US bank failure by May 31?
Ekonomi·Bisnis

US bank failure by May 31?

Ended: May 31

Jun 30

Ended: May 31

Jun 30

>99% peluang
Polymarket

$7,460 Vol.

>99% peluang
Polymarket

$7,460 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket has priced a US bank failure by May 31 at 100% implied probability following the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation's (FDIC) seizure of Chicago-based Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust on January 30, 2026—the first such failure of the year amid institution-specific credit weaknesses, with $261 million in assets and an estimated $19.7 million hit to the Deposit Insurance Fund. This isolated event, driven by regulatory intervention rather than systemic pressures, satisfies the market's resolution criteria well ahead of the deadline, locking in near-certain Yes odds backed by real capital at stake. Tail risks remain negligible, though improbable challenges to the failure's classification under FDIC standards could theoretically arise before resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Volume
$7,460
Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Apr 30, 2026, 3:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.

Hasil diajukan: Yes

Tidak ada sengketa

Hasil akhir: Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket has priced a US bank failure by May 31 at 100% implied probability following the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation's (FDIC) seizure of Chicago-based Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust on January 30, 2026—the first such failure of the year amid institution-specific credit weaknesses, with $261 million in assets and an estimated $19.7 million hit to the Deposit Insurance Fund. This isolated event, driven by regulatory intervention rather than systemic pressures, satisfies the market's resolution criteria well ahead of the deadline, locking in near-certain Yes odds backed by real capital at stake. Tail risks remain negligible, though improbable challenges to the failure's classification under FDIC standards could theoretically arise before resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Volume
$7,460
Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Apr 30, 2026, 3:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.

Hasil diajukan: Yes

Tidak ada sengketa

Hasil akhir: Yes

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"US bank failure by May 31?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham "Ya" atau "Tidak" berdasarkan apakah mereka yakin event ini akan terjadi. Probabilitas crowd-sourced saat ini adalah 100% untuk "Yes." Misalnya, jika "Ya" dihargai 100¢, pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 100% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

"US bank failure by May 31?" adalah pasar yang baru dibuat di Polymarket, diluncurkan pada Apr 30, 2026. Sebagai pasar awal, ini adalah kesempatanmu untuk menjadi salah satu trader pertama yang menetapkan peluang dan membangun sinyal harga awal pasar. Kamu juga bisa menandai halaman ini untuk melacak volume dan aktivitas trading seiring pasar mendapatkan traksi.

Untuk trading di "US bank failure by May 31?," cukup pilih apakah kamu yakin jawabannya "Ya" atau "Tidak." Setiap sisi memiliki harga saat ini yang mencerminkan probabilitas tersirat pasar. Masukkan jumlah kamu dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" dan hasilnya diselesaikan sebagai "Ya," setiap saham membayar $1. Jika diselesaikan sebagai "Tidak," saham "Ya" kamu bernilai $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Probabilitas saat ini untuk "US bank failure by May 31?" adalah 100% untuk "Yes." Ini berarti keramaian Polymarket saat ini percaya ada peluang 100% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time berdasarkan trade aktual, memberikan sinyal yang terus diperbarui tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.

Aturan resolusi untuk "US bank failure by May 31?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.