Trader consensus reflects near-certainty against Venezuela achieving U.S. statehood by year-end, driven by insurmountable constitutional barriers under Article IV, which governs admission of new states from U.S. territories or with consent of existing states and residents—none applicable to this sovereign nation. Despite the January 2026 U.S. military operation capturing Nicolás Maduro, leaving interim President Delcy Rodríguez in charge, and April 4 normalization of diplomatic relations with sanctions lifted, no congressional enabling legislation, annexation proposals, or Venezuelan referendum has emerged. President Trump's March 17 quip tying statehood to Venezuela's World Baseball Classic success was widely viewed as jest. Realistic shifts would require unprecedented regime collapse, voluntary cession, and swift Senate ratification—highly improbable absent full U.S. occupation.