Brazil's Senate has received over 100 impeachment requests targeting STF justices, primarily Alexandre de Moraes amid ongoing internal court conflicts and probes into the Banco Master scandal, yet none have advanced past the chamber president's review. Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has repeatedly declined to proceed, consistent with historical precedent where no STF justice has ever been removed through this process despite periodic petitions. A two-thirds Senate vote (54 of 81 members) is required for conviction, and President Lula's congressional allies maintain a reliable blocking majority. Upcoming October 2026 Senate elections could alter composition, but the compressed timeline before 2027 limits realistic prospects for completion. A sudden supermajority shift or unprecedented bipartisan consensus on a specific case remains the primary variable that could elevate removal odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
4% probabilità
$90,766 Vol.
$90,766 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
4% probabilità
$90,766 Vol.
$90,766 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil's Senate has received over 100 impeachment requests targeting STF justices, primarily Alexandre de Moraes amid ongoing internal court conflicts and probes into the Banco Master scandal, yet none have advanced past the chamber president's review. Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has repeatedly declined to proceed, consistent with historical precedent where no STF justice has ever been removed through this process despite periodic petitions. A two-thirds Senate vote (54 of 81 members) is required for conviction, and President Lula's congressional allies maintain a reliable blocking majority. Upcoming October 2026 Senate elections could alter composition, but the compressed timeline before 2027 limits realistic prospects for completion. A sudden supermajority shift or unprecedented bipartisan consensus on a specific case remains the primary variable that could elevate removal odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Volume
$90,766Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil's Senate has received over 100 impeachment requests targeting STF justices, primarily Alexandre de Moraes amid ongoing internal court conflicts and probes into the Banco Master scandal, yet none have advanced past the chamber president's review. Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has repeatedly declined to proceed, consistent with historical precedent where no STF justice has ever been removed through this process despite periodic petitions. A two-thirds Senate vote (54 of 81 members) is required for conviction, and President Lula's congressional allies maintain a reliable blocking majority. Upcoming October 2026 Senate elections could alter composition, but the compressed timeline before 2027 limits realistic prospects for completion. A sudden supermajority shift or unprecedented bipartisan consensus on a specific case remains the primary variable that could elevate removal odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$90,766Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Brazil's Senate has received over 100 impeachment requests targeting STF justices, primarily Alexandre de Moraes amid ongoing internal court conflicts and probes into the Banco Master scandal, yet none have advanced past the chamber president's review. Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has repeatedly declined to proceed, consistent with historical precedent where no STF justice has ever been removed through this process despite periodic petitions. A two-thirds Senate vote (54 of 81 members) is required for conviction, and President Lula's congressional allies maintain a reliable blocking majority. Upcoming October 2026 Senate elections could alter composition, but the compressed timeline before 2027 limits realistic prospects for completion. A sudden supermajority shift or unprecedented bipartisan consensus on a specific case remains the primary variable that could elevate removal odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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