Traders assign a 97.4% probability that James Comey will not be sentenced to prison in 2026 because the pending federal case remains in its early pretrial phase. Comey faces two counts tied to a May 2025 Instagram post depicting seashells arranged as “86 47,” which prosecutors interpret as a threat against President Trump. Defense motions seek dismissal on First Amendment true-threat grounds and claims of vindictive or selective prosecution, with a ruling expected before the scheduled September 30 arraignment and October 21 trial. Earlier 2025 indictments were dismissed over an improperly appointed prosecutor, and appeals continue. Even a conviction would likely push sentencing into 2027, while acquittal or dismissal would eliminate the prospect entirely. Late-breaking plea agreements or accelerated rulings remain the primary variables that could alter the outcome before year-end.