Trader consensus heavily favors Partido Liberal (PL) at 79.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Brazil's October 4, 2026, Senate election, where 54 of 81 seats (two per state) face renewal, driven by recent state-level polls showing PL candidates leading or competitive in key races like Santa Catarina (both seats), Rio de Janeiro, Distrito Federal, Amazonas, and Pará. PL solidified as the Senate's largest current bancada with 15 seats in January 2026 via defections, further boosted by net gains during the April party window that strengthened its Chamber position ahead of the vote. MDB trails at 10.5% with strong Northeast showings (e.g., Alagoas, Ceará), while UNIÃO Brasil (6.3%) and PSD (5.0%) hold regional edges; PT lags at 2.9% amid fragmented left. Tight presidential polls pitting Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) against Lula underscore right-wing momentum influencing legislative projections.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoProssime elezioni del Senato del Brasile: la maggior parte dei seggi vinti
Prossime elezioni del Senato del Brasile: la maggior parte dei seggi vinti
PL 80%
MDB 11%
UNIÃO 5.5%
PSD 4.7%
$249,106 Vol.
$249,106 Vol.
4 ott 2026
PL
80%
MDB
11%
UNIÃO
5%
PSD
5%
PT
3%
PSB
2%
REPUBLICANOS
1%
PP
1%
NOVO
<1%
PODEMOS
<1%
PSDB
<1%
PDT
<1%
PL 80%
MDB 11%
UNIÃO 5.5%
PSD 4.7%
$249,106 Vol.
$249,106 Vol.
4 ott 2026
PL
$240,844 Vol.
80%
MDB
$752 Vol.
11%
UNIÃO
$796 Vol.
5%
PSD
$922 Vol.
5%
PT
$837 Vol.
3%
PSB
$711 Vol.
2%
REPUBLICANOS
$937 Vol.
1%
PP
$836 Vol.
1%
NOVO
$920 Vol.
<1%
PODEMOS
$501 Vol.
<1%
PSDB
$545 Vol.
<1%
PDT
$503 Vol.
<1%
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Trader consensus heavily favors Partido Liberal (PL) at 79.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Brazil's October 4, 2026, Senate election, where 54 of 81 seats (two per state) face renewal, driven by recent state-level polls showing PL candidates leading or competitive in key races like Santa Catarina (both seats), Rio de Janeiro, Distrito Federal, Amazonas, and Pará. PL solidified as the Senate's largest current bancada with 15 seats in January 2026 via defections, further boosted by net gains during the April party window that strengthened its Chamber position ahead of the vote. MDB trails at 10.5% with strong Northeast showings (e.g., Alagoas, Ceará), while UNIÃO Brasil (6.3%) and PSD (5.0%) hold regional edges; PT lags at 2.9% amid fragmented left. Tight presidential polls pitting Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) against Lula underscore right-wing momentum influencing legislative projections.
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercato aperto: Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$249,106Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Trader consensus heavily favors Partido Liberal (PL) at 79.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Brazil's October 4, 2026, Senate election, where 54 of 81 seats (two per state) face renewal, driven by recent state-level polls showing PL candidates leading or competitive in key races like Santa Catarina (both seats), Rio de Janeiro, Distrito Federal, Amazonas, and Pará. PL solidified as the Senate's largest current bancada with 15 seats in January 2026 via defections, further boosted by net gains during the April party window that strengthened its Chamber position ahead of the vote. MDB trails at 10.5% with strong Northeast showings (e.g., Alagoas, Ceará), while UNIÃO Brasil (6.3%) and PSD (5.0%) hold regional edges; PT lags at 2.9% amid fragmented left. Tight presidential polls pitting Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) against Lula underscore right-wing momentum influencing legislative projections.
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$249,106Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors Partido Liberal (PL) at 79.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Brazil's October 4, 2026, Senate election, where 54 of 81 seats (two per state) face renewal, driven by recent state-level polls showing PL candidates leading or competitive in key races like Santa Catarina (both seats), Rio de Janeiro, Distrito Federal, Amazonas, and Pará. PL solidified as the Senate's largest current bancada with 15 seats in January 2026 via defections, further boosted by net gains during the April party window that strengthened its Chamber position ahead of the vote. MDB trails at 10.5% with strong Northeast showings (e.g., Alagoas, Ceará), while UNIÃO Brasil (6.3%) and PSD (5.0%) hold regional edges; PT lags at 2.9% amid fragmented left. Tight presidential polls pitting Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) against Lula underscore right-wing momentum influencing legislative projections.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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