Recent Hong Kong Observatory seasonal guidance for July–September 2026 points to normal-to-above-normal temperatures amid ongoing climate warming trends, anchoring trader focus on 32–34 °C outcomes that together hold over 85 % implied probability. Peak summer solar insolation, high humidity, and the urban heat island effect typically drive afternoon maxima near 31–32 °C, yet variable monsoon flow, cloud cover, and possible scattered showers can suppress or enhance heating by 1–2 °C. With forecasts still several days out, model spread on boundary-layer moisture and steering winds keeps the 33 °C and 34 °C bins nearly tied, while lower or higher extremes remain limited by climatological precedent and short-term observational constraints.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta di Hong Kong il 12 luglio?
La temperatura più alta di Hong Kong il 12 luglio?
34°C 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$152,524 Vol.
$152,524 Vol.
12 lug 2026
27°C or below
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
Yes
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C or higher
No
34°C 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$152,524 Vol.
$152,524 Vol.
12 lug 2026
27°C or below
$4,468 Vol.
No
28°C
$4,306 Vol.
No
29°C
$2,428 Vol.
No
30°C
$8,043 Vol.
No
31°C
$22,469 Vol.
No
32°C
$19,735 Vol.
No
33°C
$21,524 Vol.
No
34°C
$26,854 Vol.
Yes
35°C
$26,016 Vol.
No
36°C
$12,283 Vol.
No
37°C or higher
$4,399 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Hong Kong Observatory seasonal guidance for July–September 2026 points to normal-to-above-normal temperatures amid ongoing climate warming trends, anchoring trader focus on 32–34 °C outcomes that together hold over 85 % implied probability. Peak summer solar insolation, high humidity, and the urban heat island effect typically drive afternoon maxima near 31–32 °C, yet variable monsoon flow, cloud cover, and possible scattered showers can suppress or enhance heating by 1–2 °C. With forecasts still several days out, model spread on boundary-layer moisture and steering winds keeps the 33 °C and 34 °C bins nearly tied, while lower or higher extremes remain limited by climatological precedent and short-term observational constraints.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Jul 10, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$152,524Data di fine
12 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 10, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Hong Kong Observatory seasonal guidance for July–September 2026 points to normal-to-above-normal temperatures amid ongoing climate warming trends, anchoring trader focus on 32–34 °C outcomes that together hold over 85 % implied probability. Peak summer solar insolation, high humidity, and the urban heat island effect typically drive afternoon maxima near 31–32 °C, yet variable monsoon flow, cloud cover, and possible scattered showers can suppress or enhance heating by 1–2 °C. With forecasts still several days out, model spread on boundary-layer moisture and steering winds keeps the 33 °C and 34 °C bins nearly tied, while lower or higher extremes remain limited by climatological precedent and short-term observational constraints.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$152,524Data di fine
12 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 10, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Recent Hong Kong Observatory seasonal guidance for July–September 2026 points to normal-to-above-normal temperatures amid ongoing climate warming trends, anchoring trader focus on 32–34 °C outcomes that together hold over 85 % implied probability. Peak summer solar insolation, high humidity, and the urban heat island effect typically drive afternoon maxima near 31–32 °C, yet variable monsoon flow, cloud cover, and possible scattered showers can suppress or enhance heating by 1–2 °C. With forecasts still several days out, model spread on boundary-layer moisture and steering winds keeps the 33 °C and 34 °C bins nearly tied, while lower or higher extremes remain limited by climatological precedent and short-term observational constraints.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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