Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 41°C or higher in Karachi on May 4 at the Masroor Airbase Station, driven by the Pakistan Meteorological Department's (PMD) forecast of 39–41°C amid an intensifying pre-monsoon heatwave. Recent observations confirm this trajectory, with mercury reaching 42°C yesterday under a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence, clear skies, and minimal sea breeze influence, amplified by urban heat island effects in the megacity. Historical May peaks routinely exceed 40°C during such events, supporting model consensus from PMD updates. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen strengthening of onshore winds or isolated cloud cover capping peaks below 41°C, though dry conditions are expected to prevail through afternoon observations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Karachi on May 4?
Highest temperature in Karachi on May 4?
41°C or higher 100.0%
31°C or below <1%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$70,842 Vol.
$70,842 Vol.
4 mag 2026
31°C or below
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C
No
41°C or higher
Yes
41°C or higher 100.0%
31°C or below <1%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$70,842 Vol.
$70,842 Vol.
4 mag 2026
31°C or below
$1,068 Vol.
No
32°C
$391 Vol.
No
33°C
$2,417 Vol.
No
34°C
$3,357 Vol.
No
35°C
$1,240 Vol.
No
36°C
$1,242 Vol.
No
37°C
$2,360 Vol.
No
38°C
$5,337 Vol.
No
39°C
$3,053 Vol.
No
40°C
$5,583 Vol.
No
41°C or higher
$44,794 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Masroor Airbase Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 41°C or higher in Karachi on May 4 at the Masroor Airbase Station, driven by the Pakistan Meteorological Department's (PMD) forecast of 39–41°C amid an intensifying pre-monsoon heatwave. Recent observations confirm this trajectory, with mercury reaching 42°C yesterday under a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence, clear skies, and minimal sea breeze influence, amplified by urban heat island effects in the megacity. Historical May peaks routinely exceed 40°C during such events, supporting model consensus from PMD updates. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen strengthening of onshore winds or isolated cloud cover capping peaks below 41°C, though dry conditions are expected to prevail through afternoon observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Masroor Airbase Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Masroor Airbase Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
Volume
$70,842Data di fine
4 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Masroor Airbase Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 41°C or higher in Karachi on May 4 at the Masroor Airbase Station, driven by the Pakistan Meteorological Department's (PMD) forecast of 39–41°C amid an intensifying pre-monsoon heatwave. Recent observations confirm this trajectory, with mercury reaching 42°C yesterday under a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence, clear skies, and minimal sea breeze influence, amplified by urban heat island effects in the megacity. Historical May peaks routinely exceed 40°C during such events, supporting model consensus from PMD updates. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen strengthening of onshore winds or isolated cloud cover capping peaks below 41°C, though dry conditions are expected to prevail through afternoon observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Masroor Airbase Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Masroor Airbase Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$70,842Data di fine
4 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 41°C or higher in Karachi on May 4 at the Masroor Airbase Station, driven by the Pakistan Meteorological Department's (PMD) forecast of 39–41°C amid an intensifying pre-monsoon heatwave. Recent observations confirm this trajectory, with mercury reaching 42°C yesterday under a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence, clear skies, and minimal sea breeze influence, amplified by urban heat island effects in the megacity. Historical May peaks routinely exceed 40°C during such events, supporting model consensus from PMD updates. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen strengthening of onshore winds or isolated cloud cover capping peaks below 41°C, though dry conditions are expected to prevail through afternoon observations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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