**Trader consensus clusters around 31–33°C for Hong Kong’s official daily maximum on July 1, reflecting uncertainty in the precise balance between seasonal warmth and short-term synoptic influences.** The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook for June–August 2026 calls for above-normal temperatures amid the long-term warming trend, consistent with typical early-July climatology of ~31°C daytime highs under prevailing southwesterly flow. Differentiating the narrow 31–33°C band hinges on expected cloud cover, shower activity, and boundary-layer mixing: persistent monsoon trough moisture or convective clouds would cap peaks near 31°C, while clearer intervals under a stronger subtropical ridge could allow 33°C. Model consensus and recent multi-model runs show modest spread in these details, with no major typhoon signals yet altering the pattern. Updated HKO guidance and morning observations on June 30–July 1 will likely narrow the outcome before market resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta di Hong Kong il 1° luglio?
La temperatura più alta di Hong Kong il 1° luglio?
33°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$278,519 Vol.
$278,519 Vol.
1 lug 2026
26°C or below
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
Yes
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C or higher
No
33°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$278,519 Vol.
$278,519 Vol.
1 lug 2026
26°C or below
$19,632 Vol.
No
27°C
$13,412 Vol.
No
28°C
$10,530 Vol.
No
29°C
$13,026 Vol.
No
30°C
$15,362 Vol.
No
31°C
$46,385 Vol.
No
32°C
$40,830 Vol.
No
33°C
$43,737 Vol.
Yes
34°C
$58,753 Vol.
No
35°C
$11,306 Vol.
No
36°C or higher
$5,547 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus clusters around 31–33°C for Hong Kong’s official daily maximum on July 1, reflecting uncertainty in the precise balance between seasonal warmth and short-term synoptic influences.** The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook for June–August 2026 calls for above-normal temperatures amid the long-term warming trend, consistent with typical early-July climatology of ~31°C daytime highs under prevailing southwesterly flow. Differentiating the narrow 31–33°C band hinges on expected cloud cover, shower activity, and boundary-layer mixing: persistent monsoon trough moisture or convective clouds would cap peaks near 31°C, while clearer intervals under a stronger subtropical ridge could allow 33°C. Model consensus and recent multi-model runs show modest spread in these details, with no major typhoon signals yet altering the pattern. Updated HKO guidance and morning observations on June 30–July 1 will likely narrow the outcome before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Jun 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$278,519Data di fine
1 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus clusters around 31–33°C for Hong Kong’s official daily maximum on July 1, reflecting uncertainty in the precise balance between seasonal warmth and short-term synoptic influences.** The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook for June–August 2026 calls for above-normal temperatures amid the long-term warming trend, consistent with typical early-July climatology of ~31°C daytime highs under prevailing southwesterly flow. Differentiating the narrow 31–33°C band hinges on expected cloud cover, shower activity, and boundary-layer mixing: persistent monsoon trough moisture or convective clouds would cap peaks near 31°C, while clearer intervals under a stronger subtropical ridge could allow 33°C. Model consensus and recent multi-model runs show modest spread in these details, with no major typhoon signals yet altering the pattern. Updated HKO guidance and morning observations on June 30–July 1 will likely narrow the outcome before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$278,519Data di fine
1 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
**Trader consensus clusters around 31–33°C for Hong Kong’s official daily maximum on July 1, reflecting uncertainty in the precise balance between seasonal warmth and short-term synoptic influences.** The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook for June–August 2026 calls for above-normal temperatures amid the long-term warming trend, consistent with typical early-July climatology of ~31°C daytime highs under prevailing southwesterly flow. Differentiating the narrow 31–33°C band hinges on expected cloud cover, shower activity, and boundary-layer mixing: persistent monsoon trough moisture or convective clouds would cap peaks near 31°C, while clearer intervals under a stronger subtropical ridge could allow 33°C. Model consensus and recent multi-model runs show modest spread in these details, with no major typhoon signals yet altering the pattern. Updated HKO guidance and morning observations on June 30–July 1 will likely narrow the outcome before market resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti