Trader consensus clusters tightly around 31–34°C for Shenzhen’s August 20 maximum because short-range models show modest spread amid typical late-summer variability. Subtropical monsoon conditions, high humidity near 80 %, and the urban heat-island effect set a climatological baseline near 32 °C, while recent easing of a mid-month heat spell and possible South China Sea moisture influx favor afternoon convection that caps daytime peaks. Ensemble guidance from global models diverges mainly on timing and coverage of thunderstorms or residual cloud cover, which can shave 1–2 °C from the daily high. With only two days until resolution, updated CMA and ECMWF runs plus local observations will drive the next shifts in implied probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta a Shenzhen il 20 agosto?
La temperatura più alta a Shenzhen il 20 agosto?
32°C 39%
33°C 23%
34°C 14%
31°C 13%
NUOVO
NUOVO
20 ago 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
2%
30°C
12%
31°C
13%
32°C
39%
33°C
23%
34°C
14%
35°C
6%
36°C
2%
37°C or higher
<1%
32°C 39%
33°C 23%
34°C 14%
31°C 13%
NUOVO
NUOVO
20 ago 2026
27°C or below
$286 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$24 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$169 Vol.
2%
30°C
$3 Vol.
12%
31°C
$15 Vol.
13%
32°C
$34 Vol.
39%
33°C
$19 Vol.
23%
34°C
$71 Vol.
14%
35°C
$75 Vol.
6%
36°C
$30 Vol.
2%
37°C or higher
$22 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus clusters tightly around 31–34°C for Shenzhen’s August 20 maximum because short-range models show modest spread amid typical late-summer variability. Subtropical monsoon conditions, high humidity near 80 %, and the urban heat-island effect set a climatological baseline near 32 °C, while recent easing of a mid-month heat spell and possible South China Sea moisture influx favor afternoon convection that caps daytime peaks. Ensemble guidance from global models diverges mainly on timing and coverage of thunderstorms or residual cloud cover, which can shave 1–2 °C from the daily high. With only two days until resolution, updated CMA and ECMWF runs plus local observations will drive the next shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$748Data di fine
20 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus clusters tightly around 31–34°C for Shenzhen’s August 20 maximum because short-range models show modest spread amid typical late-summer variability. Subtropical monsoon conditions, high humidity near 80 %, and the urban heat-island effect set a climatological baseline near 32 °C, while recent easing of a mid-month heat spell and possible South China Sea moisture influx favor afternoon convection that caps daytime peaks. Ensemble guidance from global models diverges mainly on timing and coverage of thunderstorms or residual cloud cover, which can shave 1–2 °C from the daily high. With only two days until resolution, updated CMA and ECMWF runs plus local observations will drive the next shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$748Data di fine
20 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus clusters tightly around 31–34°C for Shenzhen’s August 20 maximum because short-range models show modest spread amid typical late-summer variability. Subtropical monsoon conditions, high humidity near 80 %, and the urban heat-island effect set a climatological baseline near 32 °C, while recent easing of a mid-month heat spell and possible South China Sea moisture influx favor afternoon convection that caps daytime peaks. Ensemble guidance from global models diverges mainly on timing and coverage of thunderstorms or residual cloud cover, which can shave 1–2 °C from the daily high. With only two days until resolution, updated CMA and ECMWF runs plus local observations will drive the next shifts in implied probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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