Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to 23°C as Tokyo's highest temperature on April 19, driven by confirmed observational data from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) recording a midday peak of 23°C at central stations like Nerima and Chofu, followed by steady cooling into the evening amid light winds and partial cloud cover. This aligns with spring climatology, where Tokyo's April highs average 19–21°C but can reach low-20s under high-pressure influence, as seen in recent model outputs from JMA's meso-scale analysis. Scenarios challenging this include a delayed report from outlying sensors exceeding 23°C or a rare data correction, though JMA's quality-controlled readings make such revisions improbable; final daily summaries expected overnight will confirm resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Tokyo on April 19?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 19?
23°C 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$125,019 Vol.
$125,019 Vol.
19 apr 2026
16°C or below
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
Yes
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C or higher
No
23°C 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$125,019 Vol.
$125,019 Vol.
19 apr 2026
16°C or below
$1,769 Vol.
No
17°C
$1,813 Vol.
No
18°C
$4,774 Vol.
No
19°C
$1,832 Vol.
No
20°C
$4,957 Vol.
No
21°C
$9,194 Vol.
No
22°C
$10,134 Vol.
No
23°C
$25,855 Vol.
Yes
24°C
$21,952 Vol.
No
25°C
$25,795 Vol.
No
26°C or higher
$16,945 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to 23°C as Tokyo's highest temperature on April 19, driven by confirmed observational data from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) recording a midday peak of 23°C at central stations like Nerima and Chofu, followed by steady cooling into the evening amid light winds and partial cloud cover. This aligns with spring climatology, where Tokyo's April highs average 19–21°C but can reach low-20s under high-pressure influence, as seen in recent model outputs from JMA's meso-scale analysis. Scenarios challenging this include a delayed report from outlying sensors exceeding 23°C or a rare data correction, though JMA's quality-controlled readings make such revisions improbable; final daily summaries expected overnight will confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Apr 17, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$125,019Data di fine
19 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 17, 2026, 12:06 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to 23°C as Tokyo's highest temperature on April 19, driven by confirmed observational data from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) recording a midday peak of 23°C at central stations like Nerima and Chofu, followed by steady cooling into the evening amid light winds and partial cloud cover. This aligns with spring climatology, where Tokyo's April highs average 19–21°C but can reach low-20s under high-pressure influence, as seen in recent model outputs from JMA's meso-scale analysis. Scenarios challenging this include a delayed report from outlying sensors exceeding 23°C or a rare data correction, though JMA's quality-controlled readings make such revisions improbable; final daily summaries expected overnight will confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$125,019Data di fine
19 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 17, 2026, 12:06 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to 23°C as Tokyo's highest temperature on April 19, driven by confirmed observational data from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) recording a midday peak of 23°C at central stations like Nerima and Chofu, followed by steady cooling into the evening amid light winds and partial cloud cover. This aligns with spring climatology, where Tokyo's April highs average 19–21°C but can reach low-20s under high-pressure influence, as seen in recent model outputs from JMA's meso-scale analysis. Scenarios challenging this include a delayed report from outlying sensors exceeding 23°C or a rare data correction, though JMA's quality-controlled readings make such revisions improbable; final daily summaries expected overnight will confirm resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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