**Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 30°C (49.0% implied probability) or 31°C (30.5%) for Zhengzhou on September 1, 2026, with 32°C or higher at 21.0%.** These outcomes reflect ensemble forecast agreement from sources including WeatherBug (high near 32°C/89°F), WindBorne (31°C/88°F), and multiple Chinese and European models projecting 29–31°C under clear, sunny skies. Primary scientific drivers include Zhengzhou’s inland continental climate in early September, where seasonal solar insolation remains strong but begins to wane. Persistent high pressure, northeast winds (typically 7–12 km/h), low humidity (around 40–50%), and minimal cloud cover promote efficient daytime heating without significant evaporative cooling or precipitation. Historical September averages near 31°C provide a climatological baseline, and current conditions show no major synoptic shifts—such as frontal passages or monsoon remnants—that would drive larger deviations. Recent data reinforce this narrow range: late-August observations recorded highs of 32–33°C, with models indicating a modest seasonal cooldown into the first days of September. Minor model spread (some runs at 29°C, others at 32°C) accounts for the probability distribution, while the low odds on outcomes below 29°C or above 32°C reflect the low likelihood of unexpected cooling or rapid intensification under stable anticyclonic conditions. Updated model runs and official briefings remain the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in these market-implied odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta a Zhengzhou il 1° settembre?
La temperatura più alta a Zhengzhou il 1° settembre?
31°C 42%
32°C or higher 42%
29°C 7%
28°C 2.7%
NUOVO
NUOVO
1 set 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
3%
29°C
7%
30°C
49%
31°C
31%
32°C or higher
42%
31°C 42%
32°C or higher 42%
29°C 7%
28°C 2.7%
NUOVO
NUOVO
1 set 2026
22°C or below
$315 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$340 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$320 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$345 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$25 Vol.
1%
27°C
$58 Vol.
1%
28°C
$372 Vol.
3%
29°C
$36 Vol.
7%
30°C
$20 Vol.
49%
31°C
$18 Vol.
31%
32°C or higher
$43 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 30°C (49.0% implied probability) or 31°C (30.5%) for Zhengzhou on September 1, 2026, with 32°C or higher at 21.0%.** These outcomes reflect ensemble forecast agreement from sources including WeatherBug (high near 32°C/89°F), WindBorne (31°C/88°F), and multiple Chinese and European models projecting 29–31°C under clear, sunny skies.
Primary scientific drivers include Zhengzhou’s inland continental climate in early September, where seasonal solar insolation remains strong but begins to wane. Persistent high pressure, northeast winds (typically 7–12 km/h), low humidity (around 40–50%), and minimal cloud cover promote efficient daytime heating without significant evaporative cooling or precipitation. Historical September averages near 31°C provide a climatological baseline, and current conditions show no major synoptic shifts—such as frontal passages or monsoon remnants—that would drive larger deviations.
Recent data reinforce this narrow range: late-August observations recorded highs of 32–33°C, with models indicating a modest seasonal cooldown into the first days of September. Minor model spread (some runs at 29°C, others at 32°C) accounts for the probability distribution, while the low odds on outcomes below 29°C or above 32°C reflect the low likelihood of unexpected cooling or rapid intensification under stable anticyclonic conditions. Updated model runs and official briefings remain the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 31, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$1,892Data di fine
1 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 31, 2026, 12:55 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhccRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 30°C (49.0% implied probability) or 31°C (30.5%) for Zhengzhou on September 1, 2026, with 32°C or higher at 21.0%.** These outcomes reflect ensemble forecast agreement from sources including WeatherBug (high near 32°C/89°F), WindBorne (31°C/88°F), and multiple Chinese and European models projecting 29–31°C under clear, sunny skies.
Primary scientific drivers include Zhengzhou’s inland continental climate in early September, where seasonal solar insolation remains strong but begins to wane. Persistent high pressure, northeast winds (typically 7–12 km/h), low humidity (around 40–50%), and minimal cloud cover promote efficient daytime heating without significant evaporative cooling or precipitation. Historical September averages near 31°C provide a climatological baseline, and current conditions show no major synoptic shifts—such as frontal passages or monsoon remnants—that would drive larger deviations.
Recent data reinforce this narrow range: late-August observations recorded highs of 32–33°C, with models indicating a modest seasonal cooldown into the first days of September. Minor model spread (some runs at 29°C, others at 32°C) accounts for the probability distribution, while the low odds on outcomes below 29°C or above 32°C reflect the low likelihood of unexpected cooling or rapid intensification under stable anticyclonic conditions. Updated model runs and official briefings remain the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,892Data di fine
1 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 31, 2026, 12:55 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhccRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 30°C (49.0% implied probability) or 31°C (30.5%) for Zhengzhou on September 1, 2026, with 32°C or higher at 21.0%.** These outcomes reflect ensemble forecast agreement from sources including WeatherBug (high near 32°C/89°F), WindBorne (31°C/88°F), and multiple Chinese and European models projecting 29–31°C under clear, sunny skies. Primary scientific drivers include Zhengzhou’s inland continental climate in early September, where seasonal solar insolation remains strong but begins to wane. Persistent high pressure, northeast winds (typically 7–12 km/h), low humidity (around 40–50%), and minimal cloud cover promote efficient daytime heating without significant evaporative cooling or precipitation. Historical September averages near 31°C provide a climatological baseline, and current conditions show no major synoptic shifts—such as frontal passages or monsoon remnants—that would drive larger deviations. Recent data reinforce this narrow range: late-August observations recorded highs of 32–33°C, with models indicating a modest seasonal cooldown into the first days of September. Minor model spread (some runs at 29°C, others at 32°C) accounts for the probability distribution, while the low odds on outcomes below 29°C or above 32°C reflect the low likelihood of unexpected cooling or rapid intensification under stable anticyclonic conditions. Updated model runs and official briefings remain the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in these market-implied odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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