**Trader consensus heavily favors 4-6 Republican House incumbents losing their primaries in the 2026 cycle.** This range aligns with typical primary attrition patterns, where most sitting members leverage name recognition, established donor networks, and district-level organization to defeat challengers. Historical base rates show low single-digit to low double-digit losses per cycle absent broad intra-party upheaval. Recent developments include scattered defeats of higher-profile incumbents, such as Dan Crenshaw in Texas and Thomas Massie in Kentucky, often to challengers aligned with former President Trump or emphasizing stricter conservative positioning. These outcomes reflect targeted opposition in specific districts rather than a widespread wave. Dozens of additional Republican primaries remain scheduled through summer and early fall 2026 in states including Virginia, Michigan, and Florida, yet most feature limited or token opposition. Retirements (36 Republicans not seeking re-election) are tracked separately and do not count toward primary losses. Senate results, such as losses by Bill Cassidy and John Cornyn, illustrate similar dynamics but operate under different electoral mechanics. Overall positioning suggests traders view the environment as competitive enough for modest turnover but not indicative of systemic vulnerability for the broader Republican House caucus.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuanti in carica della Camera dei Rappresentanti repubblicana non vinceranno le primarie?
Quanti in carica della Camera dei Rappresentanti repubblicana non vinceranno le primarie?
4-6 86.1%
10-12 6.9%
≤3 5.8%
7-9 5.0%
$74,100 Vol.
$74,100 Vol.
≤3
6%
4-6
86%
7-9
5%
10-12
7%
13-15
2%
>15
5%
4-6 86.1%
10-12 6.9%
≤3 5.8%
7-9 5.0%
$74,100 Vol.
$74,100 Vol.
≤3
$38,728 Vol.
6%
4-6
$17,857 Vol.
86%
7-9
$6,162 Vol.
5%
10-12
$4,954 Vol.
7%
13-15
$3,796 Vol.
2%
>15
$2,604 Vol.
5%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Trader consensus heavily favors 4-6 Republican House incumbents losing their primaries in the 2026 cycle.** This range aligns with typical primary attrition patterns, where most sitting members leverage name recognition, established donor networks, and district-level organization to defeat challengers. Historical base rates show low single-digit to low double-digit losses per cycle absent broad intra-party upheaval.
Recent developments include scattered defeats of higher-profile incumbents, such as Dan Crenshaw in Texas and Thomas Massie in Kentucky, often to challengers aligned with former President Trump or emphasizing stricter conservative positioning. These outcomes reflect targeted opposition in specific districts rather than a widespread wave. Dozens of additional Republican primaries remain scheduled through summer and early fall 2026 in states including Virginia, Michigan, and Florida, yet most feature limited or token opposition.
Retirements (36 Republicans not seeking re-election) are tracked separately and do not count toward primary losses. Senate results, such as losses by Bill Cassidy and John Cornyn, illustrate similar dynamics but operate under different electoral mechanics. Overall positioning suggests traders view the environment as competitive enough for modest turnover but not indicative of systemic vulnerability for the broader Republican House caucus.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Mercato aperto: Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
Volume
$74,100Mercato aperto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Trader consensus heavily favors 4-6 Republican House incumbents losing their primaries in the 2026 cycle.** This range aligns with typical primary attrition patterns, where most sitting members leverage name recognition, established donor networks, and district-level organization to defeat challengers. Historical base rates show low single-digit to low double-digit losses per cycle absent broad intra-party upheaval.
Recent developments include scattered defeats of higher-profile incumbents, such as Dan Crenshaw in Texas and Thomas Massie in Kentucky, often to challengers aligned with former President Trump or emphasizing stricter conservative positioning. These outcomes reflect targeted opposition in specific districts rather than a widespread wave. Dozens of additional Republican primaries remain scheduled through summer and early fall 2026 in states including Virginia, Michigan, and Florida, yet most feature limited or token opposition.
Retirements (36 Republicans not seeking re-election) are tracked separately and do not count toward primary losses. Senate results, such as losses by Bill Cassidy and John Cornyn, illustrate similar dynamics but operate under different electoral mechanics. Overall positioning suggests traders view the environment as competitive enough for modest turnover but not indicative of systemic vulnerability for the broader Republican House caucus.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volume
$74,100Mercato aperto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader consensus heavily favors 4-6 Republican House incumbents losing their primaries in the 2026 cycle.** This range aligns with typical primary attrition patterns, where most sitting members leverage name recognition, established donor networks, and district-level organization to defeat challengers. Historical base rates show low single-digit to low double-digit losses per cycle absent broad intra-party upheaval. Recent developments include scattered defeats of higher-profile incumbents, such as Dan Crenshaw in Texas and Thomas Massie in Kentucky, often to challengers aligned with former President Trump or emphasizing stricter conservative positioning. These outcomes reflect targeted opposition in specific districts rather than a widespread wave. Dozens of additional Republican primaries remain scheduled through summer and early fall 2026 in states including Virginia, Michigan, and Florida, yet most feature limited or token opposition. Retirements (36 Republicans not seeking re-election) are tracked separately and do not count toward primary losses. Senate results, such as losses by Bill Cassidy and John Cornyn, illustrate similar dynamics but operate under different electoral mechanics. Overall positioning suggests traders view the environment as competitive enough for modest turnover but not indicative of systemic vulnerability for the broader Republican House caucus.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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