Preliminary reports from the Storm Prediction Center indicate roughly 142–162 tornadoes across the United States in May 2026, well below the 1991–2020 average of approximately 265. This unusually quiet period featured limited severe weather outbreaks in traditional Tornado Alley regions, with weaker storm environments and fewer days meeting supercell-favorable conditions. National Weather Service surveys have since confirmed even lower final tallies near 119, locking in the sub-200 outcome. Market-implied odds reflect this data-driven consensus, though minor upward revisions from late reports or reanalysis could theoretically occur before official closure.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHow many Tornadoes in the US in May?
How many Tornadoes in the US in May?
<200 100.0%
200–229 <1%
230–259 <1%
260–289 <1%
$10,246 Vol.
$10,246 Vol.
8 giu 2026
<200
Yes
200–229
No
230–259
No
260–289
No
290–319
No
320–349
No
350–379
No
380–410
No
410+
No
<200 100.0%
200–229 <1%
230–259 <1%
260–289 <1%
$10,246 Vol.
$10,246 Vol.
8 giu 2026
<200
$2,159 Vol.
Yes
200–229
$1,003 Vol.
No
230–259
$956 Vol.
No
260–289
$772 Vol.
No
290–319
$1,247 Vol.
No
320–349
$1,169 Vol.
No
350–379
$762 Vol.
No
380–410
$853 Vol.
No
410+
$1,324 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Preliminary reports from the Storm Prediction Center indicate roughly 142–162 tornadoes across the United States in May 2026, well below the 1991–2020 average of approximately 265. This unusually quiet period featured limited severe weather outbreaks in traditional Tornado Alley regions, with weaker storm environments and fewer days meeting supercell-favorable conditions. National Weather Service surveys have since confirmed even lower final tallies near 119, locking in the sub-200 outcome. Market-implied odds reflect this data-driven consensus, though minor upward revisions from late reports or reanalysis could theoretically occur before official closure.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Mercato aperto: Apr 27, 2026, 4:37 PM ET
Volume
$10,246Data di fine
8 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 27, 2026, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: Yes
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Yes
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Preliminary reports from the Storm Prediction Center indicate roughly 142–162 tornadoes across the United States in May 2026, well below the 1991–2020 average of approximately 265. This unusually quiet period featured limited severe weather outbreaks in traditional Tornado Alley regions, with weaker storm environments and fewer days meeting supercell-favorable conditions. National Weather Service surveys have since confirmed even lower final tallies near 119, locking in the sub-200 outcome. Market-implied odds reflect this data-driven consensus, though minor upward revisions from late reports or reanalysis could theoretically occur before official closure.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$10,246Data di fine
8 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 27, 2026, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: Yes
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Yes
Preliminary reports from the Storm Prediction Center indicate roughly 142–162 tornadoes across the United States in May 2026, well below the 1991–2020 average of approximately 265. This unusually quiet period featured limited severe weather outbreaks in traditional Tornado Alley regions, with weaker storm environments and fewer days meeting supercell-favorable conditions. National Weather Service surveys have since confirmed even lower final tallies near 119, locking in the sub-200 outcome. Market-implied odds reflect this data-driven consensus, though minor upward revisions from late reports or reanalysis could theoretically occur before official closure.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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