Illinois's 5th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+19 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit margins for the party in recent cycles. Incumbent Mike Quigley secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary and faces Republican nominee Tom Hanson in the November general election, with all major forecasters rating the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. This positioning stems from the district's urban and suburban composition in northern Chicago and surrounding areas, where Democratic candidates have historically outperformed the national average by wide margins. Trader consensus around a 95% Democratic win probability aligns with these structural factors. Shifts could occur from an unforeseen scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Republican wave, though such developments remain low-probability given current fundamentals.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIL-05 House Election Winner
IL-05 House Election Winner
$25,257 Vol.
$25,257 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
5%
$25,257 Vol.
$25,257 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$8,961 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$16,296 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Illinois's 5th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+19 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit margins for the party in recent cycles. Incumbent Mike Quigley secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary and faces Republican nominee Tom Hanson in the November general election, with all major forecasters rating the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. This positioning stems from the district's urban and suburban composition in northern Chicago and surrounding areas, where Democratic candidates have historically outperformed the national average by wide margins. Trader consensus around a 95% Democratic win probability aligns with these structural factors. Shifts could occur from an unforeseen scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Republican wave, though such developments remain low-probability given current fundamentals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$25,257Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Illinois's 5th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+19 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit margins for the party in recent cycles. Incumbent Mike Quigley secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary and faces Republican nominee Tom Hanson in the November general election, with all major forecasters rating the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. This positioning stems from the district's urban and suburban composition in northern Chicago and surrounding areas, where Democratic candidates have historically outperformed the national average by wide margins. Trader consensus around a 95% Democratic win probability aligns with these structural factors. Shifts could occur from an unforeseen scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Republican wave, though such developments remain low-probability given current fundamentals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$25,257Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Illinois's 5th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+19 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit margins for the party in recent cycles. Incumbent Mike Quigley secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary and faces Republican nominee Tom Hanson in the November general election, with all major forecasters rating the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. This positioning stems from the district's urban and suburban composition in northern Chicago and surrounding areas, where Democratic candidates have historically outperformed the national average by wide margins. Trader consensus around a 95% Democratic win probability aligns with these structural factors. Shifts could occur from an unforeseen scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Republican wave, though such developments remain low-probability given current fundamentals.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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