Incumbent Democrat Mike Quigley secured the Democratic nomination in the March 17, 2026, Illinois 5th Congressional District primary with over 65% of the vote, setting up a fifth general election rematch against Republican Tommy Hanson, whom he has defeated handily in prior cycles. Rated Solid Democratic by the Cook Political Report, the North Side Chicago district's partisan lean and Quigley's long incumbency since 2009 underpin trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic Party, reflecting historical base rates for safe seats where incumbents win over 95% of the time. Absent major catalysts like scandals, health events, or a national Republican wave, the November 3 matchup favors continuity, though early voting trends or endorsements could prompt minor shifts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIL-05 House Election Winner
IL-05 House Election Winner
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$1,365 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$1,465 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mike Quigley secured the Democratic nomination in the March 17, 2026, Illinois 5th Congressional District primary with over 65% of the vote, setting up a fifth general election rematch against Republican Tommy Hanson, whom he has defeated handily in prior cycles. Rated Solid Democratic by the Cook Political Report, the North Side Chicago district's partisan lean and Quigley's long incumbency since 2009 underpin trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic Party, reflecting historical base rates for safe seats where incumbents win over 95% of the time. Absent major catalysts like scandals, health events, or a national Republican wave, the November 3 matchup favors continuity, though early voting trends or endorsements could prompt minor shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$2,829Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mike Quigley secured the Democratic nomination in the March 17, 2026, Illinois 5th Congressional District primary with over 65% of the vote, setting up a fifth general election rematch against Republican Tommy Hanson, whom he has defeated handily in prior cycles. Rated Solid Democratic by the Cook Political Report, the North Side Chicago district's partisan lean and Quigley's long incumbency since 2009 underpin trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic Party, reflecting historical base rates for safe seats where incumbents win over 95% of the time. Absent major catalysts like scandals, health events, or a national Republican wave, the November 3 matchup favors continuity, though early voting trends or endorsements could prompt minor shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$2,829Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Mike Quigley secured the Democratic nomination in the March 17, 2026, Illinois 5th Congressional District primary with over 65% of the vote, setting up a fifth general election rematch against Republican Tommy Hanson, whom he has defeated handily in prior cycles. Rated Solid Democratic by the Cook Political Report, the North Side Chicago district's partisan lean and Quigley's long incumbency since 2009 underpin trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic Party, reflecting historical base rates for safe seats where incumbents win over 95% of the time. Absent major catalysts like scandals, health events, or a national Republican wave, the November 3 matchup favors continuity, though early voting trends or endorsements could prompt minor shifts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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