Recent polls released this week, including Nanos Research (April 10, LPC 45.3%), Spark Insights (April 8, down 2 points for LPC), Abacus Data, and Liaison Strategies (April 11, LPC 43%), show slight softening in Liberal Party vote intentions amid an otherwise dominant position, prompting trader consensus for a downturn in seat projections. Despite 338Canada's April 12 update projecting 210 Liberal seats—well above the 172 needed for majority—and strong pre-byelection momentum that led to Liberal sweeps in three federal ridings on April 13 plus ongoing Conservative floor-crossings, the minor dips in fresh polling data have fueled 57.5% implied odds on "Down," reflecting bets on aggregator models like 338Canada adjusting lower week-over-week as the post-surge normalization sets in ahead of potential snap election speculation.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLiberals Up or Down for Canada Seats Polls this week?
Liberals Up or Down for Canada Seats Polls this week?
Up
$29 Vol.
$29 Vol.
29 mar 2026
Up
$29 Vol.
$29 Vol.
29 mar 2026
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is higher on April 5, 2026, than on March 29, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is higher on March 29, 2026, than on April 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is the same on both dates.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
If no data point is published for the latter reference date by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, this market will resolve to 50-50.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the specified party on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.Recent polls released this week, including Nanos Research (April 10, LPC 45.3%), Spark Insights (April 8, down 2 points for LPC), Abacus Data, and Liaison Strategies (April 11, LPC 43%), show slight softening in Liberal Party vote intentions amid an otherwise dominant position, prompting trader consensus for a downturn in seat projections. Despite 338Canada's April 12 update projecting 210 Liberal seats—well above the 172 needed for majority—and strong pre-byelection momentum that led to Liberal sweeps in three federal ridings on April 13 plus ongoing Conservative floor-crossings, the minor dips in fresh polling data have fueled 57.5% implied odds on "Down," reflecting bets on aggregator models like 338Canada adjusting lower week-over-week as the post-surge normalization sets in ahead of potential snap election speculation.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is higher on April 5, 2026, than on March 29, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is higher on March 29, 2026, than on April 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is the same on both dates.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
If no data point is published for the latter reference date by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, this market will resolve to 50-50.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the specified party on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is higher on March 29, 2026, than on April 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is the same on both dates.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
If no data point is published for the latter reference date by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, this market will resolve to 50-50.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the specified party on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Mercato aperto: Mar 27, 2026, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$29Data di fine
29 mar 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 27, 2026, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Up" if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is higher on April 5, 2026, than on March 29, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is higher on March 29, 2026, than on April 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is the same on both dates.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
If no data point is published for the latter reference date by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, this market will resolve to 50-50.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the specified party on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.Recent polls released this week, including Nanos Research (April 10, LPC 45.3%), Spark Insights (April 8, down 2 points for LPC), Abacus Data, and Liaison Strategies (April 11, LPC 43%), show slight softening in Liberal Party vote intentions amid an otherwise dominant position, prompting trader consensus for a downturn in seat projections. Despite 338Canada's April 12 update projecting 210 Liberal seats—well above the 172 needed for majority—and strong pre-byelection momentum that led to Liberal sweeps in three federal ridings on April 13 plus ongoing Conservative floor-crossings, the minor dips in fresh polling data have fueled 57.5% implied odds on "Down," reflecting bets on aggregator models like 338Canada adjusting lower week-over-week as the post-surge normalization sets in ahead of potential snap election speculation.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is higher on April 5, 2026, than on March 29, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is higher on March 29, 2026, than on April 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is the same on both dates.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
If no data point is published for the latter reference date by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, this market will resolve to 50-50.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the specified party on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is higher on March 29, 2026, than on April 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is the same on both dates.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
If no data point is published for the latter reference date by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, this market will resolve to 50-50.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the specified party on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Volume
$29Data di fine
29 mar 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 27, 2026, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls released this week, including Nanos Research (April 10, LPC 45.3%), Spark Insights (April 8, down 2 points for LPC), Abacus Data, and Liaison Strategies (April 11, LPC 43%), show slight softening in Liberal Party vote intentions amid an otherwise dominant position, prompting trader consensus for a downturn in seat projections. Despite 338Canada's April 12 update projecting 210 Liberal seats—well above the 172 needed for majority—and strong pre-byelection momentum that led to Liberal sweeps in three federal ridings on April 13 plus ongoing Conservative floor-crossings, the minor dips in fresh polling data have fueled 57.5% implied odds on "Down," reflecting bets on aggregator models like 338Canada adjusting lower week-over-week as the post-surge normalization sets in ahead of potential snap election speculation.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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