**Recent official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and numerical models indicate a minimum temperature of 24–26°C for September 4, driven by persistent northwest winds, extensive cloud cover, and scattered showers associated with a nearby tropical cyclone remnant.** These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling while suppressing daytime maxima near 28–29°C. Current observations show overnight lows around 25–26°C under similar synoptic patterns, aligning with climatological September norms. Market-implied probabilities favor 25°C as the mode because ensemble guidance clusters tightly in this narrow range, with only modest uncertainty from potential variations in shower timing or wind strength that could nudge the minimum by 1°C either way. Updated model runs and the next HKO bulletin will provide the primary near-term catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa di Hong Kong il 4 settembre?
La temperatura più bassa di Hong Kong il 4 settembre?
25°C 50%
26°C 28%
24°C 20%
27°C 15%
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 set 2026
20°C o inferiore
8%
21°C
12%
22°C
13%
23°C
14%
24°C
20%
25°C
50%
26°C
28%
27°C
15%
28°C
13%
29°C
1%
30°C o superiore
8%
25°C 50%
26°C 28%
24°C 20%
27°C 15%
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 set 2026
20°C o inferiore
$75 Vol.
8%
21°C
$0 Vol.
12%
22°C
$0 Vol.
13%
23°C
$0 Vol.
14%
24°C
$0 Vol.
20%
25°C
$1,177 Vol.
50%
26°C
$20 Vol.
28%
27°C
$0 Vol.
15%
28°C
$0 Vol.
13%
29°C
$0 Vol.
1%
30°C o superiore
$0 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Recent official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and numerical models indicate a minimum temperature of 24–26°C for September 4, driven by persistent northwest winds, extensive cloud cover, and scattered showers associated with a nearby tropical cyclone remnant.** These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling while suppressing daytime maxima near 28–29°C. Current observations show overnight lows around 25–26°C under similar synoptic patterns, aligning with climatological September norms. Market-implied probabilities favor 25°C as the mode because ensemble guidance clusters tightly in this narrow range, with only modest uncertainty from potential variations in shower timing or wind strength that could nudge the minimum by 1°C either way. Updated model runs and the next HKO bulletin will provide the primary near-term catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$1,272Data di fine
4 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Recent official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and numerical models indicate a minimum temperature of 24–26°C for September 4, driven by persistent northwest winds, extensive cloud cover, and scattered showers associated with a nearby tropical cyclone remnant.** These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling while suppressing daytime maxima near 28–29°C. Current observations show overnight lows around 25–26°C under similar synoptic patterns, aligning with climatological September norms. Market-implied probabilities favor 25°C as the mode because ensemble guidance clusters tightly in this narrow range, with only modest uncertainty from potential variations in shower timing or wind strength that could nudge the minimum by 1°C either way. Updated model runs and the next HKO bulletin will provide the primary near-term catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,272Data di fine
4 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...**Recent official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and numerical models indicate a minimum temperature of 24–26°C for September 4, driven by persistent northwest winds, extensive cloud cover, and scattered showers associated with a nearby tropical cyclone remnant.** These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling while suppressing daytime maxima near 28–29°C. Current observations show overnight lows around 25–26°C under similar synoptic patterns, aligning with climatological September norms. Market-implied probabilities favor 25°C as the mode because ensemble guidance clusters tightly in this narrow range, with only modest uncertainty from potential variations in shower timing or wind strength that could nudge the minimum by 1°C either way. Updated model runs and the next HKO bulletin will provide the primary near-term catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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