Recent Met Office and ECMWF model consensus for early July 2026 points to mild overnight conditions in London, with minimum temperatures most likely falling in the 14–16 °C range on July 1. This aligns with climatological norms for the first week of July, when average lows sit near 13–15 °C, though a broader seasonal signal of above-average temperatures and elevated heatwave risk has kept some probability mass on warmer nights near 19 °C. Short-term factors include limited cloud cover and light winds that favor modest radiative cooling, while any increase in Atlantic moisture or stronger southerly flow could lift the minimum a degree or two. With resolution only 48 hours away, the next few official forecast updates will dominate shifts in implied probabilities, as ensemble spreads remain modest at this lead time. Traders appear to be weighting the most recent deterministic runs that avoid both sharp cooling and anomalous warmth.