Forecast models from sources including AEMET and international ensembles indicate Madrid's overnight low on September 18 will likely settle near 15°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with light northeasterly winds. This positioning reflects typical mid-September radiative cooling rates for the city's 655 m elevation and urban heat island, tempered by recent above-average warmth that has kept surface temperatures elevated. The tight clustering of market odds around 13–16°C stems from minor model disagreements on cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing, which can shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C. Historical September averages near 15°C provide context, but current dry, stable high-pressure conditions limit downside risk below 13°C while capping upside above 17°C absent unexpected moisture or wind shifts. Updated model runs and official AEMET briefings remain key near-term catalysts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa a Madrid il 18 settembre?
La temperatura più bassa a Madrid il 18 settembre?
15°C 40%
14°C 39%
13°C 27%
16°C 25%
NUOVO
NUOVO
18 set 2026
12°C o inferiore
8%
13°C
27%
14°C
39%
15°C
40%
16°C
25%
17°C
19%
18°C
14%
19°C
14%
20°C
2%
21°C
2%
22°C o superiore
2%
15°C 40%
14°C 39%
13°C 27%
16°C 25%
NUOVO
NUOVO
18 set 2026
12°C o inferiore
$0 Vol.
8%
13°C
$9 Vol.
27%
14°C
$0 Vol.
39%
15°C
$0 Vol.
40%
16°C
$0 Vol.
25%
17°C
$0 Vol.
19%
18°C
$0 Vol.
14%
19°C
$0 Vol.
14%
20°C
$0 Vol.
2%
21°C
$0 Vol.
2%
22°C o superiore
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including AEMET and international ensembles indicate Madrid's overnight low on September 18 will likely settle near 15°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with light northeasterly winds. This positioning reflects typical mid-September radiative cooling rates for the city's 655 m elevation and urban heat island, tempered by recent above-average warmth that has kept surface temperatures elevated. The tight clustering of market odds around 13–16°C stems from minor model disagreements on cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing, which can shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C. Historical September averages near 15°C provide context, but current dry, stable high-pressure conditions limit downside risk below 13°C while capping upside above 17°C absent unexpected moisture or wind shifts. Updated model runs and official AEMET briefings remain key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$9Data di fine
18 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including AEMET and international ensembles indicate Madrid's overnight low on September 18 will likely settle near 15°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with light northeasterly winds. This positioning reflects typical mid-September radiative cooling rates for the city's 655 m elevation and urban heat island, tempered by recent above-average warmth that has kept surface temperatures elevated. The tight clustering of market odds around 13–16°C stems from minor model disagreements on cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing, which can shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C. Historical September averages near 15°C provide context, but current dry, stable high-pressure conditions limit downside risk below 13°C while capping upside above 17°C absent unexpected moisture or wind shifts. Updated model runs and official AEMET briefings remain key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9Data di fine
18 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from sources including AEMET and international ensembles indicate Madrid's overnight low on September 18 will likely settle near 15°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with light northeasterly winds. This positioning reflects typical mid-September radiative cooling rates for the city's 655 m elevation and urban heat island, tempered by recent above-average warmth that has kept surface temperatures elevated. The tight clustering of market odds around 13–16°C stems from minor model disagreements on cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing, which can shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C. Historical September averages near 15°C provide context, but current dry, stable high-pressure conditions limit downside risk below 13°C while capping upside above 17°C absent unexpected moisture or wind shifts. Updated model runs and official AEMET briefings remain key near-term catalysts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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