**Model uncertainty in short-term forecasts for overnight minimum temperatures in Paris is driving the near-even split between the 7°C-or-below and 17°C-or-higher outcomes.** Current ensemble guidance shows lows clustered near 13–16°C under partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies with light westerly winds, consistent with seasonal norms around 11–12°C but with notable run-to-run variability tied to cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing. Clearer conditions overnight could enhance radiative cooling and push readings lower, while any increase in cloudiness or warm-air advection would support milder values. Traders appear to be pricing both tails of the distribution heavily amid this spread, with intermediate bins (8–16°C) attracting balanced interest as resolution approaches on September 18.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa a Parigi il 18 settembre?
La temperatura più bassa a Parigi il 18 settembre?
17°C o superiore 98%
11°C 40%
9°C 39%
8°C 38%
NUOVO
NUOVO
18 set 2026
7°C o inferiore
2%
8°C
38%
9°C
39%
10°C
38%
11°C
40%
12°C
22%
13°C
38%
14°C
38%
15°C
38%
16°C
38%
17°C o superiore
98%
17°C o superiore 98%
11°C 40%
9°C 39%
8°C 38%
NUOVO
NUOVO
18 set 2026
7°C o inferiore
$0 Vol.
2%
8°C
$0 Vol.
38%
9°C
$0 Vol.
39%
10°C
$0 Vol.
38%
11°C
$0 Vol.
40%
12°C
$0 Vol.
22%
13°C
$0 Vol.
38%
14°C
$0 Vol.
38%
15°C
$0 Vol.
38%
16°C
$0 Vol.
38%
17°C o superiore
$0 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Model uncertainty in short-term forecasts for overnight minimum temperatures in Paris is driving the near-even split between the 7°C-or-below and 17°C-or-higher outcomes.** Current ensemble guidance shows lows clustered near 13–16°C under partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies with light westerly winds, consistent with seasonal norms around 11–12°C but with notable run-to-run variability tied to cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing. Clearer conditions overnight could enhance radiative cooling and push readings lower, while any increase in cloudiness or warm-air advection would support milder values. Traders appear to be pricing both tails of the distribution heavily amid this spread, with intermediate bins (8–16°C) attracting balanced interest as resolution approaches on September 18.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Sep 16, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$0Data di fine
18 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 16, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Model uncertainty in short-term forecasts for overnight minimum temperatures in Paris is driving the near-even split between the 7°C-or-below and 17°C-or-higher outcomes.** Current ensemble guidance shows lows clustered near 13–16°C under partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies with light westerly winds, consistent with seasonal norms around 11–12°C but with notable run-to-run variability tied to cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing. Clearer conditions overnight could enhance radiative cooling and push readings lower, while any increase in cloudiness or warm-air advection would support milder values. Traders appear to be pricing both tails of the distribution heavily amid this spread, with intermediate bins (8–16°C) attracting balanced interest as resolution approaches on September 18.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0Data di fine
18 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 16, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...**Model uncertainty in short-term forecasts for overnight minimum temperatures in Paris is driving the near-even split between the 7°C-or-below and 17°C-or-higher outcomes.** Current ensemble guidance shows lows clustered near 13–16°C under partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies with light westerly winds, consistent with seasonal norms around 11–12°C but with notable run-to-run variability tied to cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing. Clearer conditions overnight could enhance radiative cooling and push readings lower, while any increase in cloudiness or warm-air advection would support milder values. Traders appear to be pricing both tails of the distribution heavily amid this spread, with intermediate bins (8–16°C) attracting balanced interest as resolution approaches on September 18.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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