Recent forecast models from Météo-France and ECMWF indicate a minimum temperature near 12–13°C for Paris on September 16, driven by a northwest airflow advecting cooler maritime air behind a warm ridge that peaked near 32°C the prior day. This positions the market’s 50% implied probability on 11°C or below as reflecting residual model spread and the potential for localized radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies with light winds. Historical September 16 lows average 11.5°C, with recent analogs ranging 11–15°C, while the 32.5% odds on exactly 14°C capture upside risks if mixing persists overnight. Updated model runs and Météo-France briefings in the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa a Parigi il 16 settembre?
La temperatura più bassa a Parigi il 16 settembre?
14°C 44%
15°C 37%
12°C 34%
16°C 34%
NUOVO
NUOVO
16 set 2026
11°C o inferiore
20%
12°C
34%
13°C
31%
14°C
32%
15°C
37%
16°C
34%
17°C
2%
18°C
2%
19°C
2%
20°C
2%
21°C o superiore
2%
14°C 44%
15°C 37%
12°C 34%
16°C 34%
NUOVO
NUOVO
16 set 2026
11°C o inferiore
$0 Vol.
20%
12°C
$0 Vol.
34%
13°C
$83 Vol.
31%
14°C
$78 Vol.
32%
15°C
$0 Vol.
37%
16°C
$0 Vol.
34%
17°C
$0 Vol.
2%
18°C
$0 Vol.
2%
19°C
$0 Vol.
2%
20°C
$0 Vol.
2%
21°C o superiore
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from Météo-France and ECMWF indicate a minimum temperature near 12–13°C for Paris on September 16, driven by a northwest airflow advecting cooler maritime air behind a warm ridge that peaked near 32°C the prior day. This positions the market’s 50% implied probability on 11°C or below as reflecting residual model spread and the potential for localized radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies with light winds. Historical September 16 lows average 11.5°C, with recent analogs ranging 11–15°C, while the 32.5% odds on exactly 14°C capture upside risks if mixing persists overnight. Updated model runs and Météo-France briefings in the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$161Data di fine
16 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from Météo-France and ECMWF indicate a minimum temperature near 12–13°C for Paris on September 16, driven by a northwest airflow advecting cooler maritime air behind a warm ridge that peaked near 32°C the prior day. This positions the market’s 50% implied probability on 11°C or below as reflecting residual model spread and the potential for localized radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies with light winds. Historical September 16 lows average 11.5°C, with recent analogs ranging 11–15°C, while the 32.5% odds on exactly 14°C capture upside risks if mixing persists overnight. Updated model runs and Météo-France briefings in the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$161Data di fine
16 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from Météo-France and ECMWF indicate a minimum temperature near 12–13°C for Paris on September 16, driven by a northwest airflow advecting cooler maritime air behind a warm ridge that peaked near 32°C the prior day. This positions the market’s 50% implied probability on 11°C or below as reflecting residual model spread and the potential for localized radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies with light winds. Historical September 16 lows average 11.5°C, with recent analogs ranging 11–15°C, while the 32.5% odds on exactly 14°C capture upside risks if mixing persists overnight. Updated model runs and Météo-France briefings in the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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